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Championship

Referee: S Martin

Birmingham

S T T T S

2–1

Full-time

Sunderland

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Sunderland

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 37%

29%

44%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

48%

53%

Both score Ø 51%

52%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,41 xG 1,27

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

9 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 18. · Sunderland 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	32	25	3	4	+44	+27.2	78
2	Leeds	31	19	6	6	+33	+28.3	63
3	Ipswich	31	18	9	4	+19	+17.7	63
4	Southampton	30	18	7	5	+22	+21.9	61
5	West Brom	30	15	7	8	+17	+7.0	52
6	Coventry	32	12	12	8	+13	+8.8	48
7	Norwich	30	14	6	10	+7	-4.7	48
8	Hull	31	14	6	11	+5	+6.7	48
9	Preston	32	14	6	12	-8	-12.7	48
10	Sunderland	32	14	5	13	+9	+11.3	47
11	Bristol City	32	12	8	12	+2	+0.3	44
12	Watford	32	10	11	11	+3	+2.4	41
13	Middlesbrough	31	12	5	14	-1	+13.6	41
14	Cardiff	31	12	4	15	-7	-14.7	40
15	Plymouth	32	9	10	13	-3	-15.3	37
16	Blackburn	31	11	3	17	-12	-5.0	36
17	Swansea	32	9	9	14	-12	-11.6	36
18	Birmingham	31	9	8	14	-12	-4.2	35
19	Stoke	32	9	8	15	-15	-3.9	35
20	Huddersfield	32	7	13	12	-15	-11.1	34
21	Millwall	32	8	9	15	-13	-9.7	33
22	QPR	32	7	8	17	-15	-10.1	29
23	Sheffield Weds	32	7	5	20	-28	-8.7	26
24	Rotherham	31	3	10	18	-33	-33.6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	16	13	1	2	+24	+14.3	40
2	Leeds	15	11	4	0	+23	+20.0	37
3	West Brom	16	11	3	2	+16	+10.7	36
4	Ipswich	15	10	4	1	+14	+15.5	34
5	Southampton	14	10	2	2	+20	+15.5	32
6	Norwich	15	10	2	3	+11	+4.0	32
7	Sunderland	16	10	0	6	+9	+9.5	30
8	Coventry	16	7	8	1	+10	+7.0	29
9	Preston	16	9	2	5	-2	-5.6	29
10	Plymouth	16	8	4	4	+11	-3.7	28
11	Hull	16	7	4	5	+7	+7.7	25
12	Birmingham	15	6	6	3	+4	+1.1	24
13	Bristol City	16	7	3	6	+3	+1.2	24
14	Huddersfield	16	5	6	5	-1	-2.5	21
15	Middlesbrough	16	6	3	7	-1	+9.1	21
16	Watford	16	5	5	6	+5	+8.4	20
17	Cardiff	15	6	2	7	-2	-7.5	20
18	Blackburn	16	6	2	8	-4	+2.5	20
19	Sheffield Weds	16	5	4	7	-3	+0.8	19
20	Stoke	16	5	4	7	-8	+0.9	19
21	Swansea	16	4	5	7	-6	-1.6	17
22	Millwall	16	4	4	8	-11	-2.9	16
23	Rotherham	16	3	6	7	-5	-9.4	15
24	QPR	16	3	5	8	-7	-2.4	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	16	12	2	2	+20	+12.8	38
2	Ipswich	16	8	5	3	+5	+2.1	29
3	Southampton	16	8	5	3	+2	+6.4	29
4	Leeds	16	8	2	6	+10	+8.3	26
5	Hull	15	7	2	6	-2	-1.0	23
6	Watford	16	5	6	5	-2	-6.1	21
7	Middlesbrough	15	6	2	7	+0	+4.6	20
8	Bristol City	16	5	5	6	-1	-0.9	20
9	Cardiff	16	6	2	8	-5	-7.2	20
10	Coventry	16	5	4	7	+3	+1.8	19
11	Swansea	16	5	4	7	-6	-10.0	19
12	Preston	16	5	4	7	-6	-7.2	19
13	Sunderland	16	4	5	7	+0	+1.8	17
14	Millwall	16	4	5	7	-2	-6.8	17
15	West Brom	14	4	4	6	+1	-3.7	16
16	Norwich	15	4	4	7	-4	-8.7	16
17	Stoke	16	4	4	8	-7	-4.8	16
18	Blackburn	15	5	1	9	-8	-7.5	16
19	QPR	16	4	3	9	-8	-7.7	15
20	Huddersfield	16	2	7	7	-14	-8.6	13
21	Birmingham	16	3	2	11	-16	-5.3	11
22	Plymouth	16	1	6	9	-14	-11.6	9
23	Sheffield Weds	16	2	1	13	-25	-9.5	7
24	Rotherham	15	0	4	11	-28	-24.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.