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Premier League

Referee: L Smith

Fulham

U T U U S

1–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fulham Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 46%

33%

58%

Points per game

1,2

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

58%

71%

Both score Ø 55%

42%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,4

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,55 xG 1,61

52% Possession 48%

15 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 6

11 Free kicks against 6

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fulham 12. · Aston Villa 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	25	17	6	2	+35	+24.1	57
2	Man City	23	16	4	3	+31	+23.9	52
3	Arsenal	24	16	4	4	+31	+30.7	52
4	Tottenham	24	14	5	5	+15	+0.5	47
5	Aston Villa	24	14	4	6	+18	+11.1	46
6	Man United	24	13	2	9	+0	-4.3	41
7	Newcastle	24	11	3	10	+12	+4.3	36
8	West Ham	24	10	6	8	-6	-10.5	36
9	Brighton	24	9	8	7	+3	+3.9	35
10	Chelsea	24	10	4	10	+1	+10.1	34
11	Wolves	24	9	5	10	-2	-7.9	32
12	Fulham	24	8	5	11	-6	-12.7	29
13	Everton	24	8	5	11	-6	+3.0	29
14	Bournemouth	23	7	6	10	-13	-3.6	27
15	Brentford	24	7	4	13	-8	+5.5	25
16	Crystal Palace	24	6	6	12	-16	-8.5	24
17	Nott'm Forest	24	5	6	13	-14	-7.5	21
18	Luton	23	5	5	13	-12	-17.8	20
19	Burnley	24	3	4	17	-25	-19.4	13
20	Sheffield United	24	3	4	17	-38	-24.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	10	2	0	+23	+23.6	32
2	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+19	+19.6	29
3	Aston Villa	12	9	1	2	+18	+11.7	28
4	Man City	11	8	3	0	+19	+9.1	27
5	Tottenham	12	9	0	3	+9	+3.8	27
6	Newcastle	12	8	1	3	+15	+12.3	25
7	Brighton	12	6	5	1	+11	+7.2	23
8	Fulham	12	7	1	4	+9	+2.5	22
9	Man United	12	7	1	4	+0	+1.0	22
10	West Ham	12	5	4	3	+1	-7.2	19
11	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	+2	+10.2	18
12	Wolves	12	5	3	4	-1	-3.6	18
13	Brentford	13	4	3	6	-5	+2.5	15
14	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-5	-0.7	13
15	Everton	12	3	3	6	-1	+7.1	12
16	Nott'm Forest	12	3	3	6	-3	+0.0	12
17	Crystal Palace	12	3	3	6	-4	-1.6	12
18	Luton	12	3	2	7	-2	-1.4	11
19	Sheffield United	12	2	2	8	-19	-9.9	8
20	Burnley	12	1	2	9	-14	-5.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	12	8	1	3	+12	+14.8	25
2	Liverpool	13	7	4	2	+12	+0.5	25
3	Arsenal	12	7	2	3	+12	+11.1	23
4	Tottenham	12	5	5	2	+6	-3.3	20
5	Man United	12	6	1	5	+0	-5.3	19
6	Aston Villa	12	5	3	4	+0	-0.7	18
7	Everton	12	5	2	5	-5	-4.1	17
8	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-7	-3.3	17
9	Chelsea	12	5	1	6	-1	-0.0	16
10	Wolves	12	4	2	6	-1	-4.3	14
11	Bournemouth	12	4	2	6	-8	-2.8	14
12	Brighton	12	3	3	6	-8	-3.4	12
13	Crystal Palace	12	3	3	6	-12	-6.9	12
14	Newcastle	12	3	2	7	-3	-8.0	11
15	Brentford	11	3	1	7	-3	+3.0	10
16	Luton	11	2	3	6	-10	-16.4	9
17	Nott'm Forest	12	2	3	7	-11	-7.5	9
18	Burnley	12	2	2	8	-11	-14.1	8
19	Fulham	12	1	4	7	-15	-15.2	7
20	Sheffield United	12	1	2	9	-19	-15.0	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.