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Ekstraklasa

Referee: M Kochanek

Stal Mielec

T T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Motor Lublin

U U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stal Mielec Motor Lublin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

14%

29%

Points per game

0,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 14%

14%

Both score Ø 29%

29%

Average goals

1,9

2,0

Scored

0,6

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,06 xG 1,25

52% Possession 48%

20 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stal Mielec 18. · Motor Lublin 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	8	6	1	1	+13	+4.2	19
2	Cracovia	9	6	1	2	+5	-0.8	19
3	Pogon Szczecin	9	5	1	3	+5	+2.6	16
4	Widzew Lodz	9	4	3	2	+2	-2.5	15
5	Piast Gliwice	9	4	3	2	+2	+1.0	15
6	Jagiellonia	8	5	0	3	-2	+0.5	15
7	Legia	9	4	2	3	+6	+4.3	14
8	Rakow	8	4	2	2	+3	+3.9	14
9	Gornik Zabrze	9	3	2	4	+0	+0.9	11
10	Radomiak Radom	8	3	0	5	-1	+0.8	9
11	Motor Lublin	7	2	3	2	-2	-2.0	9
12	GKS Katowice	9	2	3	4	-3	-3.2	9
13	Korona Kielce	9	2	3	4	-7	-4.6	9
14	Puszcza	9	1	5	3	-1	+0.0	8
15	Zaglebie	8	2	2	4	-4	-1.7	8
16	Lechia Gdansk	9	2	2	5	-7	-5.5	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	6	0	4	2	-4	+2.0	4
18	Stal Mielec	7	1	1	5	-5	+0.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Pogon Szczecin	5	5	0	0	+9	+6.1	15
2	Lech Poznan	4	4	0	0	+11	+4.5	12
3	Jagiellonia	5	4	0	1	+4	+4.2	12
4	Widzew Lodz	4	3	1	0	+3	+0.5	10
5	Legia	5	3	0	2	+6	+6.0	9
6	Piast Gliwice	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.3	8
7	Gornik Zabrze	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.9	7
8	Zaglebie	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.0	7
9	Cracovia	4	2	1	1	+0	-0.4	7
10	Radomiak Radom	4	2	0	2	+3	+3.6	6
11	Puszcza	5	1	3	1	+2	+1.7	6
12	Korona Kielce	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.5	6
13	GKS Katowice	5	1	2	2	+0	-1.4	5
14	Motor Lublin	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.8	5
15	Stal Mielec	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.2	4
16	Lechia Gdansk	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.3	4
17	Slask Wroclaw	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.0	3
18	Rakow	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	5	4	1	0	+5	+3.1	13
2	Cracovia	5	4	0	1	+5	-0.4	12
3	Lech Poznan	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.2	7
4	Piast Gliwice	5	2	1	2	-1	+0.7	7
5	Legia	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.7	5
6	Widzew Lodz	5	1	2	2	-1	-3.1	5
7	Motor Lublin	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.2	4
8	Gornik Zabrze	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.0	4
9	GKS Katowice	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.8	4
10	Lechia Gdansk	5	1	1	3	-5	-3.2	4
11	Radomiak Radom	4	1	0	3	-4	-2.8	3
12	Jagiellonia	3	1	0	2	-6	-3.8	3
13	Korona Kielce	5	0	3	2	-7	-5.1	3
14	Puszcza	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.7	2
15	Slask Wroclaw	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.1	1
16	Pogon Szczecin	4	0	1	3	-4	-3.4	1
17	Zaglebie	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.7	1
18	Stal Mielec	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.