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Ekstraklasa

Referee: D Sylwestrzak

Lech Poznan

S T T S S

3–1

Full-time

Stal Mielec

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lech Poznan Stal Mielec

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 46%

65%

26%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

Both score Ø 48%

39%

57%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,9

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

59% Possession 41%

24 Shots 11

14 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 11

5 Corners 6

5 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lech Poznan 2. · Stal Mielec 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	24	14	7	3	+20	+11.6	49
2	Lech Poznan	23	15	2	6	+25	+9.9	47
3	Jagiellonia	23	13	6	4	+15	+2.6	45
4	Pogon Szczecin	24	12	4	8	+10	+9.2	40
5	Legia	23	11	6	6	+14	+10.2	39
6	Cracovia	24	10	8	6	+8	-3.3	38
7	Motor Lublin	23	10	5	8	-5	-2.7	35
8	Gornik Zabrze	23	10	4	9	+2	+4.0	34
9	Piast Gliwice	24	8	9	7	+1	-1.7	33
10	Korona Kielce	24	8	8	8	-7	-2.6	32
11	GKS Katowice	23	8	6	9	+2	+2.1	30
12	Radomiak Radom	24	8	4	12	-6	+0.7	28
13	Widzew Lodz	23	7	6	10	-11	-4.5	27
14	Stal Mielec	23	6	5	12	-7	+3.9	23
15	Puszcza	24	5	7	12	-12	-13.6	22
16	Zaglebie	23	6	4	13	-16	-6.1	22
17	Lechia Gdansk	23	5	6	12	-16	-15.3	21
18	Slask Wroclaw	24	2	9	13	-17	-4.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	12	10	0	2	+21	+8.3	30
2	Pogon Szczecin	12	9	1	2	+11	+10.1	28
3	Jagiellonia	12	8	3	1	+15	+4.4	27
4	Legia	12	8	2	2	+15	+8.2	26
5	Rakow	12	6	3	3	+8	+6.9	21
6	Gornik Zabrze	12	6	2	4	+4	+6.1	20
7	Stal Mielec	12	5	3	4	+2	+8.0	18
8	Motor Lublin	11	5	3	3	+1	-1.5	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	5	2	5	-1	+3.8	17
10	Widzew Lodz	11	5	2	4	-2	-0.6	17
11	Radomiak Radom	12	4	4	4	+4	+4.3	16
12	GKS Katowice	11	4	4	3	+4	-1.8	16
13	Cracovia	13	3	6	4	+0	-1.7	15
14	Piast Gliwice	12	3	6	3	-1	-0.6	15
15	Puszcza	11	3	4	4	-2	-2.7	13
16	Zaglebie	11	4	1	6	-4	-1.8	13
17	Slask Wroclaw	12	2	5	5	-3	-1.4	11
18	Lechia Gdansk	11	3	2	6	-8	-8.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	12	8	4	0	+12	+4.7	28
2	Cracovia	11	7	2	2	+8	-1.7	23
3	Piast Gliwice	12	5	3	4	+2	-1.0	18
4	Jagiellonia	11	5	3	3	+0	-1.8	18
5	Lech Poznan	11	5	2	4	+4	+1.6	17
6	Motor Lublin	12	5	2	5	-6	-1.2	17
7	Korona Kielce	12	3	6	3	-6	-6.4	15
8	GKS Katowice	12	4	2	6	-2	+3.9	14
9	Gornik Zabrze	11	4	2	5	-2	-2.1	14
10	Legia	11	3	4	4	-1	+2.0	13
11	Pogon Szczecin	12	3	3	6	-1	-0.9	12
12	Radomiak Radom	12	4	0	8	-10	-3.6	12
13	Lechia Gdansk	12	2	4	6	-8	-6.6	10
14	Widzew Lodz	12	2	4	6	-9	-3.9	10
15	Puszcza	13	2	3	8	-10	-10.9	9
16	Zaglebie	12	2	3	7	-12	-4.4	9
17	Stal Mielec	11	1	2	8	-9	-4.1	5
18	Slask Wroclaw	12	0	4	8	-14	-3.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.