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Championship

Referee: T Nield

Derby

T T S U U

1–1

Full-time

Hull

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Hull

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 32%

36%

27%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

36%

Both score Ø 50%

45%

55%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,63 xG 1,08

42% Possession 58%

14 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 13. · Hull 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	11	8	1	2	+12	+2.3	25
2	Leeds	12	6	5	1	+11	+11.9	23
3	Burnley	11	6	4	1	+12	+1.5	22
4	Sheffield United	11	6	3	2	+6	+2.6	21
5	West Brom	11	5	4	2	+6	+4.9	19
6	Blackburn	12	5	4	3	+4	-0.6	19
7	Watford	12	6	1	5	-3	-5.0	19
8	Norwich	11	4	5	2	+6	+5.0	17
9	Middlesbrough	11	5	2	4	+2	+10.6	17
10	Bristol City	12	3	7	2	-2	-0.0	16
11	Sheffield Weds	12	4	3	5	-5	-1.9	15
12	Oxford	11	3	5	3	+2	-3.1	14
13	Derby	11	4	2	5	+0	-1.9	14
14	Millwall	11	3	4	4	+2	+8.1	13
15	Swansea	11	3	4	4	+1	-2.4	13
16	Hull	11	3	4	4	-2	-2.9	13
17	Preston	11	3	4	4	-4	-2.9	13
18	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-2	-5.0	12
19	Coventry	12	3	3	6	-3	+3.0	12
20	Luton	12	3	2	7	-6	+1.2	11
21	Cardiff	11	3	2	6	-7	-2.1	11
22	Plymouth	11	3	2	6	-9	-11.2	11
23	QPR	11	1	5	5	-8	-2.8	8
24	Portsmouth	12	1	5	6	-13	-9.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Blackburn	6	5	1	0	+9	+2.6	16
2	Watford	6	5	1	0	+7	+2.0	16
3	Sunderland	5	4	1	0	+8	+1.4	13
4	Leeds	6	4	1	1	+7	+7.1	13
5	Sheffield United	5	4	1	0	+5	+4.9	13
6	Derby	5	4	0	1	+6	+1.1	12
7	Oxford	6	3	3	0	+5	-0.7	12
8	Burnley	5	3	2	0	+7	+0.9	11
9	Preston	6	3	2	1	+3	+2.0	11
10	Middlesbrough	6	3	2	1	+2	+9.1	11
11	Millwall	6	3	1	2	+4	+7.3	10
12	Plymouth	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.3	10
13	Bristol City	6	2	4	0	+2	-0.4	10
14	Norwich	5	2	3	0	+7	+5.5	9
15	Swansea	5	2	3	0	+4	+2.3	9
16	Coventry	6	3	0	3	+2	+5.0	9
17	Cardiff	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.5	9
18	Stoke	6	2	2	2	+3	-0.8	8
19	Sheffield Weds	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.9	8
20	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	+3.7	8
21	Luton	6	2	1	3	-1	+3.2	7
22	Hull	6	1	3	2	+0	+0.9	6
23	QPR	6	0	3	3	-5	+0.5	3
24	Portsmouth	6	0	3	3	-6	-3.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	6	4	0	2	+4	+0.9	12
2	West Brom	6	3	2	1	+5	+1.2	11
3	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.6	11
4	Leeds	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.8	10
5	Sheffield United	6	2	2	2	+1	-2.3	8
6	Norwich	6	2	2	2	-1	-0.5	8
7	Hull	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.9	7
8	Sheffield Weds	6	2	1	3	-6	-4.8	7
9	Middlesbrough	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.6	6
10	Bristol City	6	1	3	2	-4	+0.4	6
11	QPR	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.3	5
12	Portsmouth	6	1	2	3	-7	-6.2	5
13	Swansea	6	1	1	4	-3	-4.7	4
14	Luton	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.0	4
15	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-5	-4.2	4
16	Millwall	5	0	3	2	-2	+0.8	3
17	Blackburn	6	0	3	3	-5	-3.3	3
18	Coventry	6	0	3	3	-5	-2.0	3
19	Watford	6	1	0	5	-10	-7.0	3
20	Oxford	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.4	2
21	Derby	6	0	2	4	-6	-3.0	2
22	Preston	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.9	2
23	Cardiff	5	0	2	3	-9	-1.6	2
24	Plymouth	6	0	1	5	-12	-11.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.