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Championship

Referee: A Madley

Derby

T U S T S

0–0

Full-time

Swansea

U U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Championship · 11/10 matches

Win Ø 24%

27%

20%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

27%

50%

Both score Ø 48%

45%

50%

Average goals

1,6

2,3

Scored

0,7

0,9

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

24% Possession 76%

6 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

0 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 14. · Swansea 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	12	7	4	1	+12	25
2	Coventry	12	8	1	3	+7	25
3	Bournemouth	11	6	5	0	+9	23
4	Stoke	11	6	3	2	+4	21
5	Fulham	11	6	2	3	+10	20
6	Blackburn	10	4	4	2	+6	16
7	Luton	11	4	4	3	+5	16
8	Huddersfield	9	5	1	3	+4	16
9	Bristol City	11	4	4	3	+1	16
10	Reading	11	5	1	5	-1	16
11	QPR	10	4	3	3	+5	15
12	Sheffield United	11	4	3	4	+3	15
13	Preston	11	3	5	3	-1	14
14	Derby	11	3	4	4	-2	13
15	Middlesbrough	10	3	3	4	+0	12
16	Millwall	10	2	6	2	-1	12
17	Blackpool	10	3	3	4	-4	12
18	Birmingham	11	3	3	5	-5	12
19	Cardiff	11	3	3	5	-6	12
20	Swansea	10	2	4	4	-5	10
21	Barnsley	10	1	5	4	-6	8
22	Peterborough	10	2	2	6	-10	8
23	Peterboro	11	2	2	7	-11	8
24	Hull	10	1	3	6	-9	6
25	Nott'm Forest	9	1	2	6	-5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	7	7	0	0	+14	21
2	Stoke	6	5	1	0	+6	16
3	Reading	6	4	1	1	+5	13
4	Luton	6	3	2	1	+6	11
5	West Brom	5	3	2	0	+6	11
6	Bournemouth	5	3	2	0	+5	11
7	Preston	6	3	2	1	+1	11
8	Sheffield United	6	3	1	2	+7	10
9	Blackburn	5	3	1	1	+6	10
10	Fulham	5	3	1	1	+6	10
11	Huddersfield	4	3	0	1	+2	9
12	Derby	5	2	3	0	+2	9
13	QPR	5	2	2	1	+3	8
14	Peterborough	5	2	2	1	+3	8
15	Peterboro	6	2	2	2	+2	8
16	Millwall	5	2	2	1	+1	8
17	Middlesbrough	5	2	1	2	+1	7
18	Swansea	5	1	3	1	-1	6
19	Blackpool	5	2	0	3	-4	6
20	Barnsley	5	1	2	2	-2	5
21	Birmingham	5	1	2	2	-3	5
22	Bristol City	5	0	4	1	-1	4
23	Cardiff	5	1	1	3	-4	4
24	Hull	5	0	2	3	-6	2
25	Nott'm Forest	5	0	1	4	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+6	14
2	Bournemouth	6	3	3	0	+4	12
3	Bristol City	6	4	0	2	+2	12
4	Fulham	6	3	1	2	+4	10
5	Cardiff	6	2	2	2	-2	8
6	QPR	5	2	1	2	+2	7
7	Huddersfield	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	Birmingham	6	2	1	3	-2	7
9	Blackpool	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Blackburn	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Luton	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Middlesbrough	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Stoke	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Sheffield United	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Nott'm Forest	4	1	1	2	+0	4
16	Millwall	5	0	4	1	-2	4
17	Hull	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Swansea	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Derby	6	1	1	4	-4	4
20	Coventry	5	1	1	3	-7	4
21	Preston	5	0	3	2	-2	3
22	Barnsley	5	0	3	2	-4	3
23	Reading	5	1	0	4	-6	3
24	Peterboro	5	0	0	5	-13	0
25	Peterborough	5	0	0	5	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.