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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Luton

S U U T S

3–1

Full-time

Bristol City

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,2

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 43/41 matches

Win Ø 34%

26%

41%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

42%

41%

Both score Ø 52%

49%

54%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,37 xG 0,70

36% Possession 64%

16 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 22. · Bristol City 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	43	26	13	4	+54	+50.9	91
2	Burnley	43	25	16	2	+45	+16.9	91
3	Sheffield United	40	25	6	9	+24	+15.1	81
4	Sunderland	40	21	12	7	+22	+11.9	75
5	Bristol City	41	17	15	9	+11	+4.5	66
6	Middlesbrough	43	18	9	16	+11	+12.2	63
7	Coventry	41	18	8	15	+4	+17.9	62
8	West Brom	43	14	18	11	+10	+10.9	60
9	Millwall	43	16	12	15	-3	+1.6	60
10	Blackburn	43	17	8	18	+3	-1.6	59
11	Swansea	43	16	9	18	-5	+0.2	57
12	Watford	43	16	8	19	-6	-7.2	56
13	Norwich	43	13	14	16	+3	+9.4	53
14	QPR	43	13	14	16	-5	-4.5	53
15	Sheffield Weds	43	14	11	18	-10	-2.5	53
16	Stoke	43	12	14	17	-9	-15.6	50
17	Preston	43	10	19	14	-9	-5.6	49
18	Portsmouth	43	13	10	20	-14	-12.5	49
19	Oxford	43	12	12	19	-18	-25.7	48
20	Hull	43	11	12	20	-10	-6.7	45
21	Derby	43	11	10	22	-11	-6.4	43
22	Luton	43	11	10	22	-25	-8.2	43
23	Cardiff	43	9	15	19	-23	-15.6	42
24	Plymouth	43	9	13	21	-39	-39.4	40

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	21	16	4	1	+39	+31.7	52
2	Burnley	21	12	9	0	+24	+10.1	45
3	Bristol City	21	13	6	2	+17	+9.3	45
4	Sheffield United	20	14	2	4	+15	+15.1	44
5	Sunderland	20	12	6	2	+16	+13.7	42
6	Coventry	21	12	3	6	+11	+10.8	39
7	Watford	22	12	3	7	+5	-0.4	39
8	West Brom	21	10	8	3	+13	+10.7	38
9	Middlesbrough	22	11	5	6	+8	+9.1	38
10	Blackburn	22	11	4	7	+10	+6.1	37
11	Portsmouth	21	10	6	5	+11	+3.5	36
12	Norwich	22	9	8	5	+16	+11.0	35
13	Swansea	22	10	5	7	+9	+9.7	35
14	Oxford	22	10	5	7	+0	-7.5	35
15	Millwall	21	10	4	7	+5	+7.9	34
16	Stoke	22	8	9	5	+6	-4.1	33
17	Preston	22	7	12	3	+5	+5.5	33
18	Derby	22	9	4	9	+7	+3.4	31
19	Plymouth	21	8	7	6	+0	-5.9	31
20	QPR	21	7	8	6	+3	+4.2	29
21	Luton	21	7	7	7	+0	+7.2	28
22	Cardiff	21	7	4	10	-3	-0.4	25
23	Sheffield Weds	21	5	7	9	-3	+4.0	22
24	Hull	21	4	8	9	-4	+4.3	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	22	13	7	2	+21	+6.8	46
2	Leeds	22	10	9	3	+15	+19.2	39
3	Sheffield United	20	11	4	5	+9	+0.1	37
4	Sunderland	20	9	6	5	+6	-1.8	33
5	Sheffield Weds	22	9	4	9	-7	-6.5	31
6	Millwall	22	6	8	8	-8	-6.3	26
7	Middlesbrough	21	7	4	10	+3	+3.2	25
8	Hull	22	7	4	11	-6	-11.0	25
9	QPR	22	6	6	10	-8	-8.7	24
10	Coventry	20	6	5	9	-7	+7.1	23
11	West Brom	22	4	10	8	-3	+0.1	22
12	Blackburn	21	6	4	11	-7	-7.7	22
13	Swansea	21	6	4	11	-14	-9.4	22
14	Bristol City	20	4	9	7	-6	-4.8	21
15	Norwich	21	4	6	11	-13	-1.7	18
16	Watford	21	4	5	12	-11	-6.9	17
17	Stoke	21	4	5	12	-15	-11.6	17
18	Cardiff	22	2	11	9	-20	-15.2	17
19	Preston	21	3	7	11	-14	-11.1	16
20	Luton	22	4	3	15	-25	-15.4	15
21	Oxford	21	2	7	12	-18	-18.2	13
22	Portsmouth	22	3	4	15	-25	-16.0	13
23	Derby	21	2	6	13	-18	-9.8	12
24	Plymouth	22	1	6	15	-39	-33.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.