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Ekstraklasa

Referee: P Raczkowski

Jagiellonia

T U T S U

1–3

Full-time

Zaglebie

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Jagiellonia Zaglebie

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,8

1,7

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 43%

57%

29%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

39%

Both score Ø 49%

54%

43%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,19 xG 1,91

62% Possession 38%

17 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

13 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Jagiellonia 3. · Zaglebie 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	29	17	8	4	+23	+9.9	59
2	Lech Poznan	28	18	2	8	+27	+9.1	56
3	Jagiellonia	28	16	7	5	+17	+2.9	55
4	Pogon Szczecin	29	15	5	9	+17	+14.2	50
5	Legia	28	12	8	8	+13	+10.4	44
6	Motor Lublin	29	12	7	10	-6	+0.5	43
7	Cracovia	28	11	9	8	+5	-4.3	42
8	GKS Katowice	29	12	6	11	+3	+1.5	42
9	Gornik Zabrze	28	12	4	12	+4	+5.1	40
10	Piast Gliwice	29	9	11	9	-1	-3.8	38
11	Korona Kielce	29	9	10	10	-10	+0.7	37
12	Widzew Lodz	29	10	6	13	-9	-6.3	36
13	Radomiak Radom	29	10	5	14	-5	-0.9	35
14	Zaglebie	28	8	5	15	-17	-7.1	29
15	Puszcza	29	6	9	14	-15	-15.0	27
16	Lechia Gdansk	28	7	6	15	-18	-15.3	27
17	Slask Wroclaw	29	5	10	14	-12	-0.6	25
18	Stal Mielec	28	6	6	16	-16	-1.0	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Pogon Szczecin	15	12	1	2	+19	+15.5	37
2	Lech Poznan	14	12	0	2	+25	+8.3	36
3	Jagiellonia	14	9	4	1	+16	+5.5	31
4	Legia	14	8	3	3	+14	+9.4	27
5	Rakow	14	8	3	3	+10	+6.7	27
6	GKS Katowice	14	7	4	3	+8	-1.3	25
7	Gornik Zabrze	14	7	2	5	+7	+6.4	23
8	Widzew Lodz	15	7	2	6	-1	-0.4	23
9	Motor Lublin	14	6	4	4	+3	+0.9	22
10	Korona Kielce	14	6	2	6	-2	+5.8	20
11	Radomiak Radom	14	5	4	5	+4	+3.7	19
12	Stal Mielec	14	5	4	5	-1	+5.2	19
13	Piast Gliwice	15	4	7	4	-2	-0.6	19
14	Cracovia	15	4	6	5	+0	-1.3	18
15	Puszcza	14	4	6	4	-1	-1.3	18
16	Zaglebie	14	5	2	7	-5	-3.4	17
17	Lechia Gdansk	14	5	2	7	-7	-7.5	17
18	Slask Wroclaw	15	3	6	6	-3	-0.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	15	9	5	1	+13	+3.2	32
2	Cracovia	13	7	3	3	+5	-3.1	24
3	Jagiellonia	14	7	3	4	+1	-2.6	24
4	Motor Lublin	15	6	3	6	-9	-0.4	21
5	Lech Poznan	14	6	2	6	+2	+0.7	20
6	Piast Gliwice	14	5	4	5	+1	-3.2	19
7	Legia	14	4	5	5	-1	+1.0	17
8	Gornik Zabrze	14	5	2	7	-3	-1.2	17
9	GKS Katowice	15	5	2	8	-5	+2.8	17
10	Korona Kielce	15	3	8	4	-8	-5.1	17
11	Radomiak Radom	15	5	1	9	-9	-4.5	16
12	Pogon Szczecin	14	3	4	7	-2	-1.2	13
13	Widzew Lodz	14	3	4	7	-8	-5.9	13
14	Zaglebie	14	3	3	8	-12	-3.8	12
15	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-9	-0.1	10
16	Lechia Gdansk	14	2	4	8	-11	-7.8	10
17	Puszcza	15	2	3	10	-14	-13.7	9
18	Stal Mielec	14	1	2	11	-15	-6.1	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.