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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Derby

S U T U T

1–1

Full-time

Bristol City

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

6,0

2,5

Scored

2,0

Conceded

4,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,47 xG 0,76

52% Possession 48%

5 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 5

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 22. · Bristol City 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.3	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.6	6
3	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.8	6
4	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+3	-1.2	4
5	Coventry	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.8	4
6	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
7	Hull	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.1	4
8	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
9	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
10	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
11	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.8	3
12	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
13	Watford	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.1	3
14	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.4	3
15	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
16	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.7	3
17	Ipswich	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.0	2
18	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.5	1
19	Wrexham	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.6	0
20	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
21	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.0	0
22	Derby	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0
23	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.2	0
24	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
2	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
3	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
4	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
5	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
6	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
7	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
8	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
9	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
10	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
11	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
12	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
13	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Coventry	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
15	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
16	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
17	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
18	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
19	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
20	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
21	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
22	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-3	+1.0	0
23	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.4	0
24	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	-1.0	3
2	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.4	3
3	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.6	3
4	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
5	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
6	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
7	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
8	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
9	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
10	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
11	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
13	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
14	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
15	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
16	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
17	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
18	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
19	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
20	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
21	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
22	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
23	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
24	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.