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Championship

Referee: W Finnie

Bristol City

U T S S U

1–0

Full-time

Derby

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 24/25 matches

Win Ø 31%

33%

28%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

42%

48%

Both score Ø 53%

46%

60%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,36 xG 0,37

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 10. · Derby 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	25	15	7	3	+29	+28.0	52
2	Burnley	26	14	10	2	+22	+6.8	52
3	Sunderland	23	13	7	3	+17	+4.8	46
4	Sheffield United	23	13	6	4	+16	+10.2	45
5	Middlesbrough	25	11	7	7	+11	+13.4	40
6	West Brom	26	9	13	4	+11	+4.4	40
7	Blackburn	25	11	6	8	+5	+0.6	39
8	Watford	24	11	4	9	+0	-4.1	37
9	Sheffield Weds	25	10	6	9	-2	-5.1	36
10	Bristol City	24	8	10	6	+3	+4.3	34
11	Swansea	26	9	7	10	+0	+1.6	34
12	Norwich	25	8	9	8	+5	+6.5	33
13	Millwall	24	7	8	9	+1	+6.5	29
14	QPR	25	6	11	8	-6	-6.7	29
15	Preston	25	6	11	8	-6	-2.5	29
16	Coventry	24	7	7	10	-2	+15.1	28
17	Derby	25	7	6	12	-3	-3.1	27
18	Stoke	26	6	9	11	-8	-12.6	27
19	Oxford	24	7	6	11	-12	-12.9	27
20	Luton	25	7	4	14	-16	-3.6	25
21	Portsmouth	23	5	8	10	-10	-11.7	23
22	Hull	25	5	7	13	-11	-4.0	22
23	Cardiff	24	5	7	12	-15	-11.1	22
24	Plymouth	25	4	8	13	-29	-24.7	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	13	10	2	1	+23	+17.8	32
2	Watford	12	9	2	1	+10	+1.9	29
3	Sunderland	11	8	3	0	+13	+5.2	27
4	Sheffield United	11	8	2	1	+11	+9.9	26
5	Burnley	12	6	6	0	+11	+5.2	24
6	Blackburn	13	7	2	4	+6	+4.7	23
7	Middlesbrough	13	6	4	3	+5	+7.4	22
8	Oxford	13	6	4	3	+2	-3.2	22
9	West Brom	12	5	6	1	+7	+4.1	21
10	Preston	13	5	6	2	+4	+2.9	21
11	Luton	13	6	3	4	+2	+3.8	21
12	Norwich	12	5	5	2	+12	+8.9	20
13	Bristol City	11	5	5	1	+9	+6.4	20
14	Derby	12	6	2	4	+8	+3.4	20
15	Swansea	13	5	5	3	+6	+9.0	20
16	Millwall	13	6	2	5	+4	+7.2	20
17	Sheffield Weds	13	5	4	4	+2	+0.5	19
18	Coventry	12	5	3	4	+6	+12.1	18
19	Stoke	14	4	6	4	+1	-3.7	18
20	Plymouth	11	4	5	2	+3	-1.4	17
21	QPR	13	4	5	4	+0	+4.0	17
22	Portsmouth	11	4	4	3	+6	+1.4	16
23	Cardiff	12	4	1	7	-5	-4.6	13
24	Hull	13	2	5	6	-4	+1.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	14	8	4	2	+11	+1.6	28
2	Leeds	12	5	5	2	+6	+10.2	20
3	Sheffield United	12	5	4	3	+5	+0.2	19
4	West Brom	14	4	7	3	+4	+0.2	19
5	Sunderland	12	5	4	3	+4	-0.4	19
6	Middlesbrough	12	5	3	4	+6	+6.0	18
7	Sheffield Weds	12	5	2	5	-4	-5.6	17
8	Blackburn	12	4	4	4	-1	-4.1	16
9	Bristol City	13	3	5	5	-6	-2.1	14
10	Swansea	13	4	2	7	-6	-7.4	14
11	Norwich	13	3	4	6	-7	-2.4	13
12	QPR	12	2	6	4	-6	-10.7	12
13	Hull	12	3	2	7	-7	-5.2	11
14	Coventry	12	2	4	6	-8	+3.0	10
15	Millwall	11	1	6	4	-3	-0.7	9
16	Stoke	12	2	3	7	-9	-8.9	9
17	Cardiff	12	1	6	5	-10	-6.5	9
18	Watford	12	2	2	8	-10	-6.0	8
19	Preston	12	1	5	6	-10	-5.4	8
20	Derby	13	1	4	8	-11	-6.5	7
21	Portsmouth	12	1	4	7	-16	-13.1	7
22	Oxford	11	1	2	8	-14	-9.7	5
23	Luton	12	1	1	10	-18	-7.4	4
24	Plymouth	14	0	3	11	-32	-23.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.