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League Cup
Referee: Thomas Kirk
West Brom
T T U S S
1–1
Full-time
Derby
T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Brom Derby
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,69 xG 0,40
55% Possession 45%
20 Shots 4
6 Shots on target 1
6 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 5
8 Corners 2
0 Offside 1
5 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Apr -25 West Brom – Derby 1–3 26. Dec -24 Derby – West Brom 2–1 23. Aug -22 Derby – West Brom 1–0 27. Dec -21 Derby – West Brom 1–0 14. Sep -21 West Brom – Derby 0–0

Match report

West Brom Derby
25′
🟨 Callum Elder
Half-time 0–0
George Campbell 🟨
48′
56′
🟨 Andreas Weimann
63′
🔁 D. Batth
↦ D. Sanderson
63′
🔁 B. Osborn
↦ B. Clark
63′
🔁 E. Adams
↦ D. Ozoh
63′
🔁 L. Wheeldon
↦ A. Weimann
1–0 A. Heggebo ⚽
I. Price
67′
J. Wallace 🔁
↦ T. Fellows
69′
70′
🔁 K. Jackson
↦ D. Brown
J. Molumby 🔁
↦ I. Price
79′
J. Maja 🔁
↦ A. Heggebo
79′
83′
🟨 Ebou Adams
K. Grant 🔁
↦ M. Johnston
87′
90′
⚽ J. Ward 1–1
95′
🟨 Josh Vickers
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

West Brom

4-2-3-1
23 J. Wildsmith G
41 A. Williams D
15 C. Taylor D
6 G. Campbell D
4 C. Styles D
17 O. Diakite M
27 A. Mowatt M
31 T. Fellows M
21 I. Price M
11 M. Johnston M
19 A. Heggebo F
Bench (9)
20 J. Griffiths
3 N. Phillips
7 J. Wallace
8 J. Molumby
9 J. Maja
10 K. Grant
33 C. Deeming
34 H. Whitwell
44 D. Cole

Coach: Ryan Glen Mason

Derby

3-5-2
31 J. Vickers G
21 J. Rooney D
28 D. Sanderson D
3 C. Forsyth D
23 J. Ward M
17 K. Goudmijn M
42 B. Clark M
18 D. Ozoh M
20 C. Elder M
39 D. Brown F
14 A. Weimann F
Bench (9)
12 R. O'Donnell
4 D. Batth
8 B. Osborn
16 L. Thompson
19 K. Jackson
32 E. Adams
37 O. Eames
44 I. Gordon
48 L. Wheeldon

Coach: John Mark Eustace

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Thomas Kirk · 15 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
19,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.