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Championship

Referee: T Nield

Derby

T S S T U

3–0

Full-time

Bristol City

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,67 xG 1,07

36% Possession 64%

19 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 9

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 17. · Bristol City 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.7	9
2	Watford	3	3	0	0	+5	+0.9	9
3	Blackburn	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.8	8
4	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+7	+0.2	7
5	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.4	7
6	Middlesbrough	4	2	1	1	+2	+5.0	7
7	Sheffield United	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.2	5
8	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.3	5
9	Bristol City	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.1	5
10	QPR	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.2	5
11	Norwich	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.6	5
12	Swansea	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.0	4
13	Coventry	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.4	4
14	Portsmouth	3	0	3	0	+0	-4.3	3
15	Oxford	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.8	3
16	Hull	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.6	3
17	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.9	3
18	Sheffield Weds	3	1	0	2	-2	+2.3	3
19	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.0	3
20	Preston	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.4	3
21	Plymouth	3	0	2	1	-4	-6.6	2
22	Millwall	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.3	1
23	Luton	4	0	1	3	-5	+1.9	1
24	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-9	-2.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.9	6
2	Watford	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.8	6
3	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.9	6
4	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+5	+0.7	4
5	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.4	4
6	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
7	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+1	+4.2	4
8	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	+2	+3.6	3
9	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.1	3
10	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
11	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.6	3
12	Stoke	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
13	Preston	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.8	3
14	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.3	2
15	Hull	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
16	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.5	1
17	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
18	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
19	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
20	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
21	QPR	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.4	1
22	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
23	Luton	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.5	0
24	Cardiff	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.4	6
2	Sheffield United	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.2	4
3	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.8	4
4	QPR	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.6	4
5	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.6	3
6	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
7	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
8	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.8	3
9	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.7	3
10	Portsmouth	2	0	2	0	+0	-4.3	2
11	Blackburn	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
12	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
13	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
15	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
16	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.4	1
17	Plymouth	2	0	1	1	-4	-6.5	1
18	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-5	-0.9	1
19	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.4	0
20	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.9	0
21	Derby	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0
22	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.4	0
23	Preston	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
24	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.