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Championship

Referee: A Backhouse

Derby

S S U T U

3–5

Full-time

Coventry

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Coventry

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,5

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

0,0

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

3,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,43 xG 3,24

48% Possession 52%

13 Shots 20

4 Shots on target 10

4 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 23. · Coventry 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	-1.0	3
2	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
3	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
4	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
5	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
6	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
7	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
8	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
9	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
10	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
11	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
13	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
14	Coventry	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
15	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
16	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
17	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
18	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
19	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
20	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
21	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
22	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
23	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
24	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-3	+1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
2	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
3	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
4	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
5	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
6	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
8	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
9	Coventry	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
10	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
11	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
12	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-3	+1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	-1.0	3
2	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
3	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
4	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
5	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
6	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
7	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
8	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
9	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
10	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
11	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
12	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.