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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Everton

S T U T T

0–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Everton Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

1,3

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 19/20 matches

Win Ø 31%

26%

35%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

63%

65%

Both score Ø 62%

63%

60%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 8

1 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

9 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 16

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Everton 16. · Aston Villa 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	22	18	2	2	+41	56
2	Liverpool	21	13	6	2	+37	45
3	Chelsea	23	12	8	3	+28	44
4	West Ham	22	11	4	7	+11	37
5	Tottenham	19	11	3	5	+4	36
6	Arsenal	20	11	2	7	+8	35
7	Man United	21	10	5	6	+5	35
8	Wolves	20	9	4	7	+2	31
9	Brighton	21	6	11	4	+0	29
10	Leicester	19	7	4	8	-3	25
11	Crystal Palace	21	5	9	7	-1	24
12	Southampton	21	5	9	7	-8	24
13	Aston Villa	20	7	2	11	-5	23
14	Brentford	22	6	5	11	-11	23
15	Leeds	20	5	7	8	-15	22
16	Everton	19	5	4	10	-10	19
17	Norwich	22	4	4	14	-32	16
18	Watford	20	4	2	14	-17	14
19	Newcastle	20	1	9	10	-23	12
20	Burnley	17	1	8	8	-11	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	1	1	+26	28
2	Liverpool	10	7	3	0	+19	24
3	Arsenal	10	7	1	2	+10	22
4	Tottenham	10	7	1	2	+6	22
5	Chelsea	11	5	5	1	+15	20
6	Crystal Palace	11	4	5	2	+8	17
7	West Ham	11	5	2	4	+4	17
8	Leicester	10	5	1	4	+3	16
9	Man United	10	5	1	4	+2	16
10	Southampton	10	3	6	1	+4	15
11	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	+1	14
12	Wolves	10	4	2	4	+0	14
13	Brighton	11	3	5	3	-1	14
14	Everton	9	4	1	4	-1	13
15	Brentford	11	4	1	6	-2	13
16	Leeds	10	3	4	3	-3	13
17	Newcastle	11	1	6	4	-9	9
18	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-13	8
19	Burnley	7	1	4	2	+0	7
20	Watford	11	2	1	8	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	1	1	+15	28
2	Chelsea	12	7	3	2	+13	24
3	Liverpool	11	6	3	2	+18	21
4	West Ham	11	6	2	3	+7	20
5	Man United	11	5	4	2	+3	19
6	Wolves	10	5	2	3	+2	17
7	Brighton	10	3	6	1	+1	15
8	Tottenham	9	4	2	3	-2	14
9	Arsenal	10	4	1	5	-2	13
10	Brentford	11	2	4	5	-9	10
11	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-6	9
12	Aston Villa	10	3	0	7	-6	9
13	Southampton	11	2	3	6	-12	9
14	Leeds	10	2	3	5	-12	9
15	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-19	8
16	Watford	9	2	1	6	-3	7
17	Crystal Palace	10	1	4	5	-9	7
18	Everton	10	1	3	6	-9	6
19	Burnley	10	0	4	6	-11	4
20	Newcastle	9	0	3	6	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.