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League Cup

Referee: M Salisbury

Port Vale

S U S U U

0–3

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Port Vale Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 88%

75%

100%

Points per game

2,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,3

4,0

Scored

1,5

2,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

38% Possession 62%

4 Shots 10

0 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Port Vale 2. · Middlesbrough 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Port Vale	4	3	1	0	+3	10
3	Blackburn	4	3	0	1	+10	9
4	Everton	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+4	9
6	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Ipswich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Exeter City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	6
10	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	West Ham	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+2	6
14	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+2	6
15	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+2	6
16	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
17	Mansfield Town	4	1	2	1	+1	5
18	Reading	2	1	1	0	+4	4
19	Portsmouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
20	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
21	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
22	Lincoln	3	1	1	1	+1	4
23	Sutton Utd	3	1	1	1	+0	4
24	Cardiff	3	1	1	1	-1	4
25	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+4	3
26	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
27	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Gillingham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Peterborough	3	0	3	0	+0	3
32	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Luton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	3
38	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
41	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
42	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
43	Stevenage	2	0	2	0	+0	2
44	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
45	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
46	Bradford	3	0	2	1	-2	2
47	Salford City	3	0	2	1	-4	2
48	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
62	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-2	1
63	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-5	1
64	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Port Vale	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Exeter City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Mansfield Town	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
12	Everton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
18	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
23	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
25	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
26	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
27	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
28	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Salford City	2	0	1	1	-4	1
41	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Bradford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+6	3
8	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Sutton Utd	2	1	0	1	+0	3
20	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
23	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
24	Peterborough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
25	Bradford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
26	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
27	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
64	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.