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Championship
Referee: Benjamin Speedie
Charlton
U T S T S
2–1
Full-time
Derby
S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Charlton Derby
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 92%
100%
83%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
1,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,97 xG 1,00
45% Possession 55%
13 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 6
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 16
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

20. Jan -26 Charlton – Derby 1–2 30. Sep -25 Derby – Charlton 1–1 30. Dec -19 Derby – Charlton 2–1 19. Oct -19 Charlton – Derby 3–0 16. Apr -16 Charlton – Derby 0–1

Match report

Charlton Derby
23′
⚽ S. Szmodics 0–1
C. Morris
Half-time 0–1
54′
🔁 A. Mowatt
↦ S. Szmodics
M. Leaburn 🔁
↦ M. Godden
59′
M. Alli 🔁
↦ S. Carey
59′
60′
🟨 Sondre Langås
1–1 L. Jones ⚽
K. Grant
61′
J. Rankin-Costello 🔁
↦ K. Grant
73′
2–1 T. Campbell ⚽
80′
83′
🔁 C. Blackett-Taylor
↦ O. Fraulo
83′
🔁 R. Brewster
↦ C. Forsyth
84′
🔁 M. Johnston
↦ J. Ward
84′
🔁 L. Salvesen
↦ L. Travis
I. Mesik 🔁
↦ D. McNamara
85′
C. Sichenje 🔁
↦ N. Chalobah
85′
90′
🟨 Alex Mowatt
98′
🟨 Rhian Brewster
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Charlton

4-2-3-1
25 W. Mannion G
20 D. McNamara D
5 L. Jones D
12 B. Koumetio D
17 A. Bell D
6 C. Coventry M
15 N. Chalobah M
7 T. Campbell
14 S. Carey M
9 K. Grant M
24 M. Godden F
Bench (9)
21 T. Brooks
26 J. Rankin-Costello
18 I. Mesik
28 C. Sichenje
8 H. Knibbs
32 A. Mwamba
30 R. Apter
11 M. Leaburn
19 M. Alli

Coach: Nathan Jones

Derby

5-3-2
1 J. Widell Zetterstrom G
23 J. Ward D
6 S. Langas D
28 D. Sanderson D
3 C. Forsyth D
18 C. Taylor D
29 O. Fraulo M
27 L. Travis M
8 B. Clark M
9 C. Morris F
11 S. Szmodics F
Bench (9)
31 J. Vickers
24 R. Nyambe
22 M. Johnston
37 O. Eames
20 A. Mowatt
33 C. Blackett-Taylor
13 F. Bilbija
15 L. Salvesen
10 R. Brewster

Coach: John Eustace

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,66
🔒
U
3,23
🔒
B
2,66
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
2,12
🔒
U2,5
1,67
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.