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2. Bundesliga

Referee: Lukas Benen

Hertha

T T S T S

4–1

Full-time

Heidenheim

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hertha Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,0

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,0

7,0

Scored

1,0

4,0

Conceded

0,0

3,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,04 xG 1,24

51% Possession 49%

19 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hertha 6. · Heidenheim 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Braunschweig	2	1	0	1	+4	+2.5	3
2	Nurnberg	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.3	3
3	Cottbus	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.7	3
4	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
5	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
6	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
7	Bochum	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
8	Holstein Kiel	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
9	St Pauli	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
10	Darmstadt	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
11	Greuther Furth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	Wolfsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
13	Kaiserslautern	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
14	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
15	Bielefeld	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
16	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.7	0
17	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0
18	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nurnberg	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.3	3
2	Cottbus	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.7	3
3	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
4	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
5	Darmstadt	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
6	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
7	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
8	Wolfsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
9	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
10	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
11	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Braunschweig	1	1	0	0	+5	+2.2	3
2	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
3	Bochum	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
4	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
5	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
6	Greuther Furth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
7	Kaiserslautern	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
8	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
9	Bielefeld	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
10	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.7	0
11	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.