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Championship
Referee: Robert Madley
Middlesbrough
U U T T S
2–1
Full-time
Lincoln
S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Lincoln
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,5
2,7
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,23 xG 0,57
76% Possession 24%
23 Shots 10
7 Shots on target 2
8 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 5
0 Offside 4
12 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Middlesbrough Lincoln
12′
⚽ A. Reach 0–1
T. Darikwa
36′
🟨 Freddie Draper
Half-time 0–1
59′
🔁 T. Olaofe
↦ F. Draper
59′
🔁 R. Street
↦ D. Jefferies
1–1 W. Lankshear ⚽
62′
M. Peart-Harris 🔁
↦ L. Castledine
63′
R. McGree 🔁
↦ A. Kante
63′
M. Arfsten 🔁
↦ Neto Borges
63′
J. Sarmiento 🔁
↦ K. Joseph
71′
71′
🔁 R. Hackett-Fairchild
↦ B. House
89′
🟨 Isaac Olaofe
2–1 W. Lankshear ⚽
R. McGree
90′
A. Jones 🔁
↦ M. Whittaker
92′
92′
🔁 A. Coubis
↦ T. Darikwa
92′
🔁 T. Bayliss
↦ A. Reach
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-2-2-2
1 R. Vitek G
2 C. Brittain D
12 L. Ayling D
29 A. Malanda D
30 Neto Borges D
42 A. Kante M
6 S. Berhalter M
11 M. Whittaker M
19 L. Castledine M
7 W. Lankshear F
22 K. Joseph F
Bench (9)
31 S. Brynn
25 G. Edmundson
5 A. Jones
14 M. Peart-Harris
46 F. Cartwright
44 C. Ibeh
8 R. McGree
16 J. Sarmiento
17 M. Arfsten

Coach: Kim Hellberg

Lincoln

5-3-2
1 G. Wickens G
2 T. Darikwa D
22 T. Hamer D
25 D. Elerewe D
6 R. Towler D
3 A. Reach D
16 D. Jefferies M
24 I. Varfolomeev M
14 C. McGrandles M
34 F. Draper F
18 B. House F
Bench (9)
46 J. Gauci
20 C. Elder
4 A. Coubis
23 J. Honohan
8 T. Bayliss
7 R. Hackett-Fairchild
19 T. Olaofe
17 R. Street
10 M. Melia

Coach: Tom Shaw

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,32
🔒
U
5,11
🔒
B
8,91
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,64
🔒
U2,5
2,18
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Robert Madley · 95 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
16,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.