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Eredivisie

Referee: Marc Nagtegaal

Excelsior

S S U S S

1–2

Full-time

PSV Eindhoven

S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior PSV Eindhoven

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

4,2

4,7

Scored

3,0

3,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

Scored

4,0

2,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+4,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,51 xG 2,24

41% Possession 59%

5 Shots 20

2 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 3

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 2. · PSV Eindhoven 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.9	6
2	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.7	3
3	Go Ahead Eagles	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
4	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.1	3
5	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
6	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.4	3
7	Groningen	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
8	Heerenveen	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.4	3
9	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.5	3
10	Telstar	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
11	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
12	For Sittard	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
13	Twente	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
14	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
15	Den Haag	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.7	0
16	Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.5	0
17	Cambuur	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.7	0
18	Willem II	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Go Ahead Eagles	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
2	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.7	3
3	Groningen	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
4	Heerenveen	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.4	3
5	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
6	Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
7	Sparta Rotterdam	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.5	0
8	Telstar	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
9	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
10	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.6	0
11	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0
12	Cambuur	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.7	3
2	Nijmegen	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.6	3
3	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Sparta Rotterdam	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.1	3
5	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
6	Telstar	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
7	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.5	3
8	For Sittard	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
9	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
10	Twente	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
11	Den Haag	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.7	0
12	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.