Gamealyst.com

← Match Finder

Premier League

Referee: S Barrott

Nott'm Forest

S U T U U

2–2

Full-time

Luton

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

Team trends

Nott'm Forest Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,3

1,8

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 19%

25%

13%

Points per game

1,1

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

38%

63%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,97 xG 1,71

57% Possession 43%

19 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 13. · Luton 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	6	2	1	+11	+7.5	20
2	Tottenham	8	6	2	0	+10	+4.0	20
3	Arsenal	8	6	2	0	+10	+8.6	20
4	Man City	8	6	0	2	+11	+9.8	18
5	Aston Villa	8	5	1	2	+7	+2.5	16
6	Brighton	8	5	1	2	+5	+2.5	16
7	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+3	-4.1	14
8	Newcastle	8	4	1	3	+11	+9.2	13
9	Crystal Palace	8	3	3	2	+0	-1.8	12
10	Man United	8	4	0	4	-3	+0.5	12
11	Chelsea	8	3	2	3	+4	+6.9	11
12	Fulham	8	3	2	3	-5	-7.0	11
13	Nott'm Forest	8	2	3	3	-2	-3.0	9
14	Wolves	8	2	2	4	-5	-4.9	8
15	Brentford	8	1	4	3	-1	+4.3	7
16	Everton	9	2	1	6	-5	+2.4	7
17	Luton	8	1	1	6	-9	-5.2	4
18	Burnley	8	1	1	6	-13	-8.5	4
19	Bournemouth	8	0	3	5	-13	-9.8	3
20	Sheffield United	8	0	1	7	-16	-13.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+9	+7.6	12
2	Arsenal	5	3	2	0	+4	+4.1	11
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+5	+1.5	10
4	Aston Villa	3	3	0	0	+11	+4.3	9
5	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.9	9
6	Newcastle	4	3	0	1	+6	+6.2	9
7	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.0	9
8	Man United	5	3	0	2	+0	+1.6	9
9	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.2	7
10	Fulham	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.6	6
11	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.2	5
12	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.6	5
13	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	+1	+3.7	4
14	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.3	4
15	Everton	5	1	0	4	-1	+4.6	3
16	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-2	+1.1	3
17	Bournemouth	4	0	2	2	-6	-4.7	2
18	Luton	4	0	1	3	-3	+1.1	1
19	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-10	-8.7	1
20	Burnley	5	0	0	5	-12	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	5	3	2	0	+6	+2.0	11
2	Arsenal	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.5	9
3	Man City	5	3	0	2	+4	+7.9	9
4	Liverpool	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.2	8
5	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.2	7
6	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.9	7
7	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.2	7
8	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	-4	-1.8	7
9	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.0	6
10	Fulham	4	1	2	1	-3	-4.4	5
11	Newcastle	4	1	1	2	+5	+3.0	4
12	Brentford	4	1	1	2	+1	+3.2	4
13	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.6	4
14	Burnley	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.9	4
15	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.9	4
16	Everton	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.2	4
17	Man United	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.1	3
18	Luton	4	1	0	3	-6	-6.2	3
19	Bournemouth	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.1	1
20	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	-5.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.