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Eredivisie

Referee: D Higler

Utrecht

T S T T T

4–3

Full-time

Ajax

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 8/6 matches

Win Ø 15%

13%

17%

Points per game

0,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

38%

83%

Both score Ø 46%

25%

67%

Average goals

2,6

3,3

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

2,1

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,6

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,03 xG 1,74

41% Possession 59%

14 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 18. · Ajax 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+27	+20.3	27
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	8	1	0	+21	+10.6	25
3	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	+26	+20.3	23
4	Twente	8	7	0	1	+13	+6.6	21
5	Excelsior	8	3	4	1	+3	-1.9	13
6	Go Ahead Eagles	8	4	1	3	+2	-8.0	13
7	Sparta Rotterdam	8	3	2	3	-3	-4.5	11
8	Heracles	8	3	2	3	-5	-3.8	11
9	Nijmegen	9	2	3	4	-2	-6.8	9
10	Waalwijk	8	3	0	5	-8	-1.5	9
11	For Sittard	9	2	3	4	-9	-1.6	9
12	Almere City	9	2	2	5	-11	-4.1	8
13	Zwolle	8	2	1	5	-7	+0.1	7
14	Vitesse	9	2	1	6	-9	-6.1	7
15	Heerenveen	9	2	1	6	-11	-6.1	7
16	Ajax	6	1	2	3	-4	-2.6	5
17	Volendam	8	1	1	6	-10	-2.8	4
18	Utrecht	8	1	0	7	-13	-8.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+13	+12.3	15
2	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+16	+11.7	13
3	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.1	13
4	Go Ahead Eagles	4	4	0	0	+11	+2.1	12
5	Twente	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.6	12
6	Heracles	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.3	9
7	Nijmegen	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.0	7
8	For Sittard	4	2	1	1	+0	+2.2	7
9	Excelsior	4	1	3	0	+1	-1.2	6
10	Waalwijk	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.3	6
11	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	2	1	-3	-2.5	5
12	Volendam	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.1	4
13	Heerenveen	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.2	4
14	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-5	+0.9	4
15	Ajax	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.2	3
16	Almere City	4	1	0	3	-7	-2.5	3
17	Vitesse	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1
18	Utrecht	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+14	+8.0	12
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	4	0	0	+8	+2.6	12
3	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+10	+8.7	10
4	Twente	4	3	0	1	+7	+4.0	9
5	Excelsior	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.7	7
6	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	0	2	+0	-2.0	6
7	Vitesse	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.6	6
8	Almere City	5	1	2	2	-4	-1.6	5
9	Zwolle	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.9	3
10	Waalwijk	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.2	3
11	Utrecht	5	1	0	4	-5	-3.6	3
12	Heerenveen	5	1	0	4	-8	-6.4	3
13	Ajax	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.4	2
14	Nijmegen	4	0	2	2	-5	-7.9	2
15	Heracles	4	0	2	2	-7	-5.1	2
16	For Sittard	5	0	2	3	-9	-3.8	2
17	Go Ahead Eagles	4	0	1	3	-9	-10.1	1
18	Volendam	4	0	0	4	-8	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.