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Taça de Portugal

Referee: João Matos

Paredes

S U U S S

0–2

Full-time

Amarante

T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paredes Amarante

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/3 matches

Win Ø 64%

60%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

60%

Both score Ø 40%

80%

Average goals

3,2

1,3

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

This season — Taça de Portugal · 3/2 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,3

1,5

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

1,3

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Paredes 3. · Amarante 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Maritimo	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Nacional	3	2	1	0	+7	7
3	Paredes	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Penafiel	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	FC Serpa	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Montalegre	4	2	1	1	-1	7
8	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+14	6
9	Mafra	2	2	0	0	+7	6
10	Tondela	2	2	0	0	+6	6
11	Porto	2	2	0	0	+6	6
12	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+5	6
13	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+5	6
14	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+5	6
15	Vilaverdense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
16	Felgueiras 1932	3	2	0	1	+3	6
17	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
18	Academica	3	2	0	1	+3	6
19	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+3	6
20	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Vizela	2	2	0	0	+2	6
22	Torreense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
23	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+2	6
24	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
25	CD Olivais e Moscavide	3	2	0	1	+1	6
26	Sintrense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
27	Pêro Pinheiro	3	1	2	0	+1	5
28	O Elvas	3	1	2	0	+1	5
29	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+13	4
30	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+7	4
31	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
32	Canelas 2010	3	1	1	1	+3	4
33	Tirsense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
34	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
35	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+2	4
36	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
37	Leixoes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
38	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	1	1	+0	4
39	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
40	Amora	2	1	0	1	+7	3
41	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+5	3
42	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+5	3
43	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
44	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+3	3
45	Moncarapachense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
46	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
47	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
48	Vila Meã	2	1	0	1	+2	3
49	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
50	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	3
51	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+2	3
52	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
53	Quarteirense SAD	2	1	0	1	+1	3
54	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Tocha	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	AVS	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
65	Academico Viseu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Fabril Barreiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
68	Ribeirão	2	1	0	1	-1	3
69	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
70	Florgrade	2	1	0	1	-2	3
71	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	-2	3
72	Camacha	2	1	0	1	-2	3
73	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
74	Santa Maria FC	2	1	0	1	-2	3
75	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
76	União Micaelense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
77	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
78	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-3	3
79	Atlético Malveira	2	0	2	0	+0	2
80	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
81	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
88	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
89	Sanjoanense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
90	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
91	Oliveirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
92	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
93	SC Covilha	2	0	1	1	-3	1
94	Os Limianos	2	0	1	1	-4	1
95	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
116	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
130	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
131	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
137	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
138	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
139	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
140	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
141	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
142	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
143	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
144	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
145	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0
146	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Penafiel	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	O Elvas	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Nacional	2	1	1	0	+5	4
7	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
8	Canelas 2010	3	1	1	1	+3	4
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
11	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
12	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
13	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
14	Porto	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Moncarapachense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
18	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
19	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
20	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Montalegre	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	União Micaelense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
38	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
41	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
42	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
43	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
44	Pêro Pinheiro	2	0	2	0	+0	2
45	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Leixoes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
53	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
54	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	CF Os Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Quarteirense SAD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Academico Viseu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Ribeirão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-5	0
90	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
91	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
92	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
93	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
94	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
95	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+14	6
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	Tirsense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	FC Serpa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Montalegre	3	1	1	1	-2	4
14	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
15	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+5	3
16	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
17	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
18	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
19	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+3	3
20	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
25	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	AVS	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
52	Santa Maria FC	2	1	0	1	-2	3
53	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
54	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	União Micaelense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
93	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
94	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
95	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
96	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
97	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
98	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.