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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

Nice

S S S S U

1–0

Full-time

Toulouse

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

0,8

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

0,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 38%

58%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

50%

Both score Ø 46%

25%

67%

Average goals

1,4

2,4

Scored

1,1

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,95 xG 1,32

53% Possession 47%

8 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 2. · Toulouse 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	9	3	1	+23	+15.2	30
2	Nice	12	7	5	0	+9	+8.1	26
3	Monaco	13	7	3	3	+8	+4.5	24
4	Lille	12	5	5	2	+4	+6.2	20
5	Reims	12	6	2	4	+2	+2.3	20
6	Lens	13	5	4	4	+3	+4.0	19
7	Le Havre	12	3	6	3	-1	-5.7	15
8	Brest	11	4	3	4	-2	+1.1	15
9	Marseille	12	3	5	4	-1	+8.3	14
10	Nantes	12	4	2	6	-6	-6.2	14
11	Montpellier	11	3	4	4	+1	+2.7	13
12	Metz	12	3	4	5	-6	-9.8	13
13	Strasbourg	12	3	4	5	-6	-3.4	13
14	Rennes	12	2	6	4	+0	+3.3	12
15	Toulouse	12	2	6	4	-3	-10.7	12
16	Lorient	12	2	5	5	-6	-8.2	11
17	Clermont	12	2	3	7	-9	-5.7	9
18	Lyon	11	1	4	6	-10	-6.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	5	1	1	+14	+6.5	16
2	Monaco	6	5	0	1	+9	+2.7	15
3	Lille	6	4	1	1	+5	+6.2	13
4	Nice	6	3	3	0	+5	+5.0	12
5	Marseille	5	3	2	0	+6	+5.7	11
6	Lens	6	3	2	1	+5	+6.4	11
7	Rennes	7	2	3	2	+3	+5.1	9
8	Lorient	6	2	3	1	+1	-3.7	9
9	Strasbourg	7	2	3	2	+1	+1.8	9
10	Reims	6	3	0	3	-1	+3.5	9
11	Nantes	6	2	2	2	+2	-1.9	8
12	Brest	5	2	2	1	+1	+5.0	8
13	Le Havre	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.4	8
14	Toulouse	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.4	6
15	Montpellier	5	1	3	1	+1	+2.2	6
16	Metz	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.8	6
17	Clermont	7	1	1	5	-7	-3.9	4
18	Lyon	6	0	3	3	-7	-1.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+9	+8.7	14
2	Nice	6	4	2	0	+4	+3.2	14
3	Reims	6	3	2	1	+3	-1.2	11
4	Monaco	7	2	3	2	-1	+1.7	9
5	Lens	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.4	8
6	Montpellier	6	2	1	3	+0	+0.5	7
7	Lille	6	1	4	1	-1	+0.0	7
8	Le Havre	6	1	4	1	-2	-8.1	7
9	Brest	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.8	7
10	Metz	6	2	1	3	-6	-8.0	7
11	Toulouse	7	1	3	3	-5	-10.3	6
12	Nantes	6	2	0	4	-8	-4.3	6
13	Clermont	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.9	5
14	Lyon	5	1	1	3	-3	-4.1	4
15	Strasbourg	5	1	1	3	-7	-5.2	4
16	Rennes	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.8	3
17	Marseille	7	0	3	4	-7	+2.7	3
18	Lorient	6	0	2	4	-7	-4.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.