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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Hélder Carvalho

Casa Pia

U S S S U

1–3

Full-time

Rio Ave

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Taça de Portugal · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

Scored

4,0

2,5

Conceded

0,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+4,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Casa Pia 14. · Rio Ave 35. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	São João Ver	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Rebordosa	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Tirsense	4	4	0	0	+5	12
4	O Elvas	4	3	1	0	+3	10
5	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+8	9
6	Amarante	4	3	0	1	+4	9
7	Cinfães	4	3	0	1	+3	9
8	Oliveira Hospital	4	3	0	1	+3	9
9	Lusitânia	4	3	0	1	+1	9
10	Alverca	3	2	1	0	+4	7
11	Brito	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Vila Real	4	2	1	1	+1	7
13	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+9	6
14	Casa Pia	2	2	0	0	+8	6
15	SC Covilha	3	2	0	1	+4	6
16	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+4	6
17	Anadia	3	2	0	1	+3	6
18	Moncarapachense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
19	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+3	6
20	Farense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
21	Varzim	3	2	0	1	+3	6
22	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
23	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
24	Moura	3	2	0	1	+2	6
25	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
26	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
27	União de Leiria	3	2	0	1	+1	6
28	Chaves	3	2	0	1	+1	6
29	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+1	6
30	Lusitânia Lourosa	3	2	0	1	+0	6
31	Leixoes	3	2	0	1	+0	6
32	Maria da Fonte	3	2	0	1	-3	6
33	Lusitano Évora 1911	3	1	2	0	+1	5
34	Sanjoanense	3	1	1	1	+3	4
35	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+2	4
36	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
37	Caldas	3	1	1	1	+0	4
38	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+4	3
39	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
40	Penafiel	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Alcains	2	1	0	1	+2	3
42	Porto	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
44	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
45	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
46	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
47	AVS	2	1	0	1	+1	3
48	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
50	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
51	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
52	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+1	3
53	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
54	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Aliança de Gandra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
70	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
71	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
72	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	-1	3
73	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
74	Paredes	2	1	0	1	-2	3
75	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
76	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
77	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
78	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
79	Estrela	2	1	0	1	-5	3
80	Lajense	3	1	0	2	-5	3
81	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
82	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
88	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
89	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
90	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
91	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
116	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
117	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
118	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
119	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
130	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
131	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
132	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
138	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
139	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
140	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
141	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
142	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
143	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
144	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
145	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
146	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tirsense	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Oliveira Hospital	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Brito	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+7	6
5	SC Covilha	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Varzim	3	2	0	1	+3	6
11	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
13	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
14	O Elvas	2	2	0	0	+2	6
15	Lusitano Évora 1911	3	1	2	0	+1	5
16	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+3	4
17	Vila Real	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+7	3
19	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+5	3
20	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
25	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Anadia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Caldas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
47	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
48	Leixoes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
49	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
51	Maria da Fonte	2	1	0	1	-4	3
52	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
53	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Penafiel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
89	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	São João Ver	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Farense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Lusitânia	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Amarante	3	2	0	1	-1	6
9	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
10	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
12	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
15	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
16	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Porto	2	1	0	1	+2	3
20	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	AVS	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Cinfães	2	1	0	1	-1	3
45	Chaves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
46	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
47	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
48	Estrela	2	1	0	1	-5	3
49	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Aliança de Gandra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Brito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Moura	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
91	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
97	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
100	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
101	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
102	Lajense	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.