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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Nacional

T S T U T

2–0

Full-time

Porto

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,3

0,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 50%

19%

81%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

31%

63%

Both score Ø 28%

31%

25%

Average goals

2,1

3,1

Scored

0,7

2,5

Conceded

1,4

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,92 xG 0,36

39% Possession 61%

7 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 10

4 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 17. · Porto 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	13	2	2	+34	+28.8	41
2	Porto	16	13	1	2	+31	+19.4	40
3	Benfica	17	12	2	3	+27	+18.6	38
4	Sp Braga	17	9	4	4	+11	+11.6	31
5	Santa Clara	17	10	1	6	+2	+8.7	31
6	Guimaraes	17	6	7	4	+4	+6.5	25
7	Casa Pia	17	6	6	5	-1	-3.1	24
8	Moreirense	17	6	4	7	-3	+0.4	22
9	Famalicao	17	4	8	5	+0	-4.7	20
10	Rio Ave	17	5	5	7	-10	-11.0	20
11	Gil Vicente	17	4	7	6	-7	-6.7	19
12	Estoril	17	4	6	7	-10	-14.3	18
13	Estrela	17	4	4	9	-13	-10.0	16
14	AVS	17	2	9	6	-11	-8.6	15
15	Arouca	17	4	3	10	-15	-11.2	15
16	Farense	17	3	5	9	-12	-15.2	14
17	Nacional	16	3	4	9	-12	-3.4	13
18	Boavista	17	2	6	9	-15	-5.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	9	9	0	0	+23	+18.7	27
2	Benfica	9	8	0	1	+22	+13.4	24
3	Sp Lisbon	8	7	0	1	+14	+13.0	21
4	Santa Clara	9	6	1	2	+2	+8.2	19
5	Rio Ave	8	4	4	0	+4	+2.3	16
6	Guimaraes	8	4	3	1	+4	+4.4	15
7	Moreirense	8	4	3	1	+2	-1.8	15
8	Estrela	9	4	2	3	-1	-3.5	14
9	Gil Vicente	8	3	4	1	+5	+0.4	13
10	Casa Pia	9	3	4	2	+2	+1.2	13
11	Sp Braga	9	3	3	3	+3	+9.5	12
12	Estoril	9	3	3	3	-3	-6.7	12
13	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-2	-0.7	10
14	AVS	9	2	4	3	-5	-6.5	10
15	Nacional	7	3	1	3	-5	-2.2	10
16	Arouca	8	2	2	4	-5	-6.8	8
17	Farense	8	2	1	5	-7	-5.2	7
18	Boavista	8	0	3	5	-10	-2.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	6	2	1	+20	+15.9	20
2	Sp Braga	8	6	1	1	+8	+2.1	19
3	Benfica	8	4	2	2	+5	+5.2	14
4	Porto	7	4	1	2	+8	+0.7	13
5	Santa Clara	8	4	0	4	+0	+0.4	12
6	Casa Pia	8	3	2	3	-3	-4.3	11
7	Famalicao	8	2	4	2	+2	-4.0	10
8	Guimaraes	9	2	4	3	+0	+2.2	10
9	Boavista	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.6	9
10	Moreirense	9	2	1	6	-5	+2.2	7
11	Farense	9	1	4	4	-5	-10.0	7
12	Arouca	9	2	1	6	-10	-4.5	7
13	Estoril	8	1	3	4	-7	-7.6	6
14	Gil Vicente	9	1	3	5	-12	-7.2	6
15	AVS	8	0	5	3	-6	-2.1	5
16	Rio Ave	9	1	1	7	-14	-13.3	4
17	Nacional	9	0	3	6	-7	-1.2	3
18	Estrela	8	0	2	6	-12	-6.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.