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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gonçalo Neves

Rio Ave

U S T U T

2–1

Full-time

Nacional

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 24%

27%

20%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

47%

27%

Both score Ø 34%

40%

27%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,90 xG 0,52

49% Possession 51%

20 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 11. · Nacional 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	16	13	1	2	+31	+19.4	40
2	Benfica	15	12	2	1	+29	+17.9	38
3	Sp Lisbon	15	12	1	2	+33	+29.1	37
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+11	+12.7	28
5	Santa Clara	15	9	0	6	+1	+7.8	27
6	Guimaraes	15	6	5	4	+4	+4.1	23
7	Moreirense	16	6	3	7	-3	+0.1	21
8	Casa Pia	15	5	5	5	-2	-2.5	20
9	Famalicao	15	4	7	4	+1	-4.9	19
10	Gil Vicente	16	4	6	6	-7	-8.1	18
11	Rio Ave	15	4	4	7	-11	-11.0	16
12	Estrela	16	4	4	8	-11	-8.5	16
13	Estoril	16	3	6	7	-12	-15.8	15
14	AVS	16	2	8	6	-11	-8.3	14
15	Nacional	15	3	4	8	-11	-2.0	13
16	Farense	15	3	3	9	-12	-12.9	12
17	Boavista	16	2	6	8	-13	-4.6	12
18	Arouca	16	3	3	10	-17	-12.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	9	9	0	0	+23	+18.7	27
2	Benfica	8	8	0	0	+23	+12.3	24
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+13	+12.5	18
4	Santa Clara	8	6	0	2	+2	+7.7	18
5	Guimaraes	7	4	2	1	+4	+3.7	14
6	Moreirense	7	4	2	1	+2	-2.1	14
7	Estrela	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.9	14
8	Rio Ave	7	3	4	0	+3	+1.0	13
9	Gil Vicente	7	3	3	1	+5	-0.9	12
10	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+4	+9.5	12
11	Casa Pia	8	3	3	2	+2	+1.8	12
12	Estoril	9	3	3	3	-3	-6.7	12
13	Famalicao	8	2	4	2	-1	-0.4	10
14	AVS	9	2	4	3	-5	-6.5	10
15	Nacional	7	3	1	3	-5	-2.2	10
16	Arouca	8	2	2	4	-5	-6.8	8
17	Farense	7	2	0	5	-7	-3.4	6
18	Boavista	7	0	3	4	-8	-1.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+20	+16.5	19
2	Sp Braga	7	5	1	1	+7	+3.2	16
3	Benfica	7	4	2	1	+6	+5.6	14
4	Porto	7	4	1	2	+8	+0.7	13
5	Famalicao	7	2	3	2	+2	-4.6	9
6	Guimaraes	8	2	3	3	+0	+0.4	9
7	Santa Clara	7	3	0	4	-1	+0.1	9
8	Boavista	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.6	9
9	Casa Pia	7	2	2	3	-4	-4.3	8
10	Moreirense	9	2	1	6	-5	+2.2	7
11	Farense	8	1	3	4	-5	-9.5	6
12	Gil Vicente	9	1	3	5	-12	-7.2	6
13	AVS	7	0	4	3	-6	-1.8	4
14	Arouca	8	1	1	6	-12	-5.7	4
15	Nacional	8	0	3	5	-6	+0.2	3
16	Estoril	7	0	3	4	-9	-9.2	3
17	Rio Ave	8	1	0	7	-14	-12.0	3
18	Estrela	8	0	2	6	-12	-6.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.