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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Arsenal

U S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Leicester

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 48%

60%

36%

Points per game

1,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

56%

64%

Both score Ø 52%

40%

64%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

21 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 6. · Leicester 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	28	22	3	3	+50	69
2	Liverpool	28	20	6	2	+53	66
3	Chelsea	28	17	8	3	+38	59
4	Man United	29	14	8	7	+8	50
5	West Ham	29	14	6	9	+12	48
6	Arsenal	25	15	3	7	+12	48
7	Wolves	29	14	4	11	+6	46
8	Tottenham	27	14	3	10	+7	45
9	Aston Villa	28	11	3	14	+2	36
10	Southampton	29	8	11	10	-9	35
11	Crystal Palace	28	7	12	9	+1	33
12	Leicester	25	9	6	10	-3	33
13	Brighton	28	7	12	9	-8	33
14	Newcastle	28	7	10	11	-16	31
15	Brentford	29	8	6	15	-13	30
16	Leeds	29	6	8	15	-34	26
17	Everton	26	6	4	16	-19	22
18	Watford	29	6	4	19	-26	22
19	Burnley	27	3	12	12	-16	21
20	Norwich	29	4	5	20	-45	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	3	0	+30	36
2	Man City	14	11	1	2	+30	34
3	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+12	29
4	West Ham	15	8	3	4	+7	27
5	Man United	15	8	3	4	+6	27
6	Chelsea	13	7	5	1	+18	26
7	Tottenham	13	8	1	4	+8	25
8	Southampton	15	5	7	3	+6	22
9	Leicester	13	6	3	4	+4	21
10	Wolves	14	6	2	6	+2	20
11	Crystal Palace	14	4	6	4	+5	18
12	Aston Villa	13	5	3	5	+4	18
13	Newcastle	14	4	6	4	-5	18
14	Brentford	15	5	2	8	-3	17
15	Everton	13	5	1	7	-1	16
16	Leeds	15	4	4	7	-12	16
17	Brighton	14	3	5	6	-8	14
18	Burnley	13	2	6	5	-6	12
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-21	9
20	Watford	14	2	1	11	-20	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+20	35
2	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+20	33
3	Liverpool	14	9	3	2	+23	30
4	Wolves	15	8	2	5	+4	26
5	Man United	14	6	5	3	+2	23
6	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+5	21
7	Tottenham	14	6	2	6	-1	20
8	Arsenal	12	6	1	5	+0	19
9	Brighton	14	4	7	3	+0	19
10	Aston Villa	15	6	0	9	-2	18
11	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	15
12	Watford	15	4	3	8	-6	15
13	Brentford	14	3	4	7	-10	13
14	Newcastle	14	3	4	7	-11	13
15	Southampton	14	3	4	7	-15	13
16	Leicester	12	3	3	6	-7	12
17	Leeds	14	2	4	8	-22	10
18	Burnley	14	1	6	7	-10	9
19	Norwich	14	2	2	10	-24	8
20	Everton	13	1	3	9	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.