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Premier League

Referee: D Coote

Chelsea

U S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Newcastle

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,8

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 43%

59%

26%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

52%

48%

Both score Ø 58%

48%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

2,1

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

73% Possession 27%

8 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

3 Offside 6

17 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 3. · Newcastle 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	28	22	3	3	+50	69
2	Liverpool	28	20	6	2	+53	66
3	Chelsea	27	16	8	3	+37	56
4	Man United	29	14	8	7	+8	50
5	Arsenal	25	15	3	7	+12	48
6	West Ham	28	13	6	9	+11	45
7	Tottenham	27	14	3	10	+7	45
8	Wolves	28	13	4	11	+5	43
9	Aston Villa	27	11	3	13	+3	36
10	Southampton	28	8	11	9	-8	35
11	Crystal Palace	28	7	12	9	+1	33
12	Leicester	25	9	6	10	-3	33
13	Brighton	28	7	12	9	-8	33
14	Newcastle	27	7	10	10	-15	31
15	Brentford	29	8	6	15	-13	30
16	Leeds	28	5	8	15	-35	23
17	Everton	25	6	4	15	-18	22
18	Burnley	27	3	12	12	-16	21
19	Watford	28	5	4	19	-27	19
20	Norwich	28	4	5	19	-44	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	3	0	+30	36
2	Man City	14	11	1	2	+30	34
3	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+12	29
4	Man United	15	8	3	4	+6	27
5	Tottenham	13	8	1	4	+8	25
6	West Ham	14	7	3	4	+6	24
7	Chelsea	12	6	5	1	+17	23
8	Southampton	14	5	7	2	+7	22
9	Leicester	13	6	3	4	+4	21
10	Wolves	14	6	2	6	+2	20
11	Crystal Palace	14	4	6	4	+5	18
12	Aston Villa	13	5	3	5	+4	18
13	Newcastle	14	4	6	4	-5	18
14	Brentford	15	5	2	8	-3	17
15	Everton	12	5	1	6	+0	16
16	Brighton	14	3	5	6	-8	14
17	Leeds	14	3	4	7	-13	13
18	Burnley	13	2	6	5	-6	12
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-21	9
20	Watford	14	2	1	11	-20	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+20	35
2	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+20	33
3	Liverpool	14	9	3	2	+23	30
4	Wolves	14	7	2	5	+3	23
5	Man United	14	6	5	3	+2	23
6	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+5	21
7	Tottenham	14	6	2	6	-1	20
8	Arsenal	12	6	1	5	+0	19
9	Brighton	14	4	7	3	+0	19
10	Aston Villa	14	6	0	8	-1	18
11	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	15
12	Brentford	14	3	4	7	-10	13
13	Newcastle	13	3	4	6	-10	13
14	Southampton	14	3	4	7	-15	13
15	Leicester	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Watford	14	3	3	8	-7	12
17	Leeds	14	2	4	8	-22	10
18	Burnley	14	1	6	7	-10	9
19	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-23	8
20	Everton	13	1	3	9	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.