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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Aston Villa

S U T T S

4–0

Full-time

Southampton

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 25/26 matches

Win Ø 34%

36%

31%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

56%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

52%

62%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

38% Possession 62%

14 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 13. · Southampton 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	27	21	3	3	+47	66
2	Liverpool	26	18	6	2	+50	60
3	Chelsea	25	14	8	3	+31	50
4	Man United	27	13	8	6	+10	47
5	West Ham	27	13	6	8	+12	45
6	Arsenal	24	14	3	7	+11	45
7	Tottenham	25	13	3	9	+3	42
8	Wolves	26	12	4	10	+3	40
9	Southampton	26	8	11	7	-3	35
10	Leicester	25	9	6	10	-3	33
11	Brighton	26	7	12	7	-5	33
12	Crystal Palace	27	6	12	9	-1	30
13	Aston Villa	25	9	3	13	-4	30
14	Newcastle	25	5	10	10	-17	25
15	Brentford	27	6	6	15	-17	24
16	Leeds	27	5	8	14	-32	23
17	Everton	24	6	4	14	-13	22
18	Burnley	25	3	12	10	-10	21
19	Watford	26	5	4	17	-22	19
20	Norwich	26	4	5	17	-40	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	10	3	0	+29	33
2	Man City	13	10	1	2	+27	31
3	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+12	29
4	West Ham	14	7	3	4	+6	24
5	Man United	14	7	3	4	+5	24
6	Chelsea	12	6	5	1	+17	23
7	Southampton	13	5	7	1	+8	22
8	Tottenham	12	7	1	4	+3	22
9	Leicester	13	6	3	4	+4	21
10	Crystal Palace	14	4	6	4	+5	18
11	Wolves	12	5	2	5	+0	17
12	Everton	12	5	1	6	+0	16
13	Aston Villa	12	4	3	5	+0	15
14	Newcastle	13	3	6	4	-6	15
15	Brentford	14	4	2	8	-5	14
16	Brighton	13	3	5	5	-6	14
17	Leeds	13	3	4	6	-10	13
18	Burnley	12	2	6	4	-2	12
19	Norwich	13	2	3	8	-17	9
20	Watford	13	2	1	10	-19	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+20	35
2	Liverpool	13	8	3	2	+21	27
3	Chelsea	13	8	3	2	+14	27
4	Man United	13	6	5	2	+5	23
5	Wolves	14	7	2	5	+3	23
6	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+6	21
7	Tottenham	13	6	2	5	+0	20
8	Brighton	13	4	7	2	+1	19
9	Arsenal	11	5	1	5	-1	16
10	Aston Villa	13	5	0	8	-4	15
11	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-11	13
12	Watford	13	3	3	7	-3	12
13	Crystal Palace	13	2	6	5	-6	12
14	Leicester	12	3	3	6	-7	12
15	Newcastle	12	2	4	6	-11	10
16	Brentford	13	2	4	7	-12	10
17	Leeds	14	2	4	8	-22	10
18	Burnley	13	1	6	6	-8	9
19	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-23	8
20	Everton	12	1	3	8	-13	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.