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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Moreirense

T T T T S

2–0

Full-time

Tondela

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 21%

17%

24%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

45%

72%

Both score Ø 59%

52%

66%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,6

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

39% Possession 61%

12 Shots 3

3 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 15

6 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 17. · Tondela 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	29	25	4	0	+53	79
2	Sp Lisbon	29	23	4	2	+41	73
3	Benfica	29	20	4	5	+44	64
4	Sp Braga	29	16	7	6	+19	55
5	Gil Vicente	30	12	11	7	+10	47
6	Guimaraes	30	12	6	12	+4	42
7	Pacos Ferreira	30	9	9	12	-11	36
8	Santa Clara	30	8	11	11	-14	35
9	Estoril	29	8	10	11	-4	34
10	Boavista	29	6	15	8	-7	33
11	Maritimo	29	8	9	12	-7	33
12	Portimonense	29	8	8	13	-7	32
13	Famalicao	30	6	11	13	-10	29
14	Vizela	29	6	11	12	-16	29
15	Arouca	30	6	9	15	-23	27
16	Tondela	29	7	4	18	-21	25
17	Moreirense	29	5	8	16	-20	23
18	Belenenses	29	4	9	16	-31	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	2	0	+28	38
2	Sp Lisbon	14	12	1	1	+21	37
3	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+21	32
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+12	28
5	Guimaraes	15	8	2	5	+9	26
6	Santa Clara	15	7	5	3	-1	26
7	Boavista	15	4	9	2	+3	21
8	Gil Vicente	15	5	5	5	+3	20
9	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	5	5	-1	20
10	Famalicao	15	3	7	5	-2	16
11	Maritimo	14	3	6	5	+0	15
12	Estoril	14	3	6	5	-1	15
13	Vizela	15	3	6	6	-6	15
14	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-14	15
15	Arouca	15	4	3	8	-15	15
16	Tondela	15	4	2	9	-9	14
17	Portimonense	15	3	4	8	-7	13
18	Moreirense	14	3	3	8	-5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	2	0	+25	41
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	3	1	+20	36
3	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+23	32
4	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+7	27
5	Gil Vicente	15	7	6	2	+7	27
6	Portimonense	14	5	4	5	+0	19
7	Estoril	15	5	4	6	-3	19
8	Maritimo	15	5	3	7	-7	18
9	Guimaraes	15	4	4	7	-5	16
10	Pacos Ferreira	15	4	4	7	-10	16
11	Vizela	14	3	5	6	-10	14
12	Famalicao	15	3	4	8	-8	13
13	Arouca	15	2	6	7	-8	12
14	Boavista	14	2	6	6	-10	12
15	Tondela	14	3	2	9	-12	11
16	Moreirense	15	2	5	8	-15	11
17	Santa Clara	15	1	6	8	-13	9
18	Belenenses	15	0	6	9	-17	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.