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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Newcastle

T S T U S

2–1

Full-time

Bournemouth

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Bournemouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 32%

27%

36%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

36%

55%

Both score Ø 55%

45%

64%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

33% Possession 67%

20 Shots 16

9 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 15. · Bournemouth 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	10	1	0	+16	31
2	Chelsea	12	8	2	2	+10	26
3	Man City	11	8	1	2	+24	25
4	Leicester	11	7	2	2	+19	23
5	Arsenal	11	4	5	2	+1	17
6	Sheffield United	11	4	4	3	+4	16
7	Bournemouth	11	4	4	3	+1	16
8	Brighton	11	4	3	4	+0	15
9	Crystal Palace	12	4	3	5	-6	15
10	Man United	11	3	4	4	+2	13
11	Tottenham	11	3	4	4	+1	13
12	Wolves	11	2	7	2	+0	13
13	West Ham	11	3	4	4	-3	13
14	Burnley	11	3	3	5	-4	12
15	Newcastle	11	3	3	5	-8	12
16	Aston Villa	11	3	2	6	-2	11
17	Everton	11	3	2	6	-6	11
18	Watford	12	1	5	6	-15	8
19	Southampton	11	2	2	7	-17	8
20	Norwich	12	2	1	9	-17	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Man City	6	4	1	1	+14	13
3	Leicester	5	4	1	0	+9	13
4	Arsenal	6	3	3	0	+3	12
5	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Tottenham	5	3	1	1	+6	10
8	Everton	6	3	1	2	+0	10
9	Sheffield United	6	3	0	3	+2	9
10	Bournemouth	6	2	3	1	+1	9
11	Burnley	5	3	0	2	+1	9
12	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
13	Aston Villa	6	2	2	2	+1	8
14	Crystal Palace	6	2	2	2	-1	8
15	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-3	7
16	Newcastle	5	1	3	1	+0	6
17	Wolves	5	1	3	1	-1	6
18	Norwich	6	2	0	4	-6	6
19	Watford	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Southampton	5	0	1	4	-15	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+7	16
2	Chelsea	6	5	0	1	+6	15
3	Man City	5	4	0	1	+10	12
4	Leicester	6	3	1	2	+10	10
5	Sheffield United	5	1	4	0	+2	7
6	Wolves	6	1	4	1	+1	7
7	Bournemouth	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Southampton	6	2	1	3	-2	7
9	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-5	7
10	West Ham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Newcastle	6	2	0	4	-8	6
12	Arsenal	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Man United	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Watford	6	1	2	3	-9	5
15	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-3	3
17	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-5	3
18	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-5	3
19	Everton	5	0	1	4	-6	1
20	Norwich	6	0	1	5	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.