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Premiership
Referee: L Wilson
Kilmarnock
U T T U T
3–0
Full-time
Aberdeen
T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Kilmarnock Aberdeen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,3
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
0,5
1,2
Conceded
1,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
-1,3
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premiership · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 22%
9%
35%
Points per game
0,6
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
61%
30%
Both score Ø 46%
57%
35%
Average goals
2,7
2,4
Scored
0,9
1,1
Conceded
1,9
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,64 xG 1,79
55% Possession 45%
19 Shots 8
9 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
7 Corners 3
3 Offside 3
16 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Kilmarnock 11. · Aberdeen 7.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Hearts 23 15 6 2 +25 +8.3 51
2 Rangers 23 13 8 2 +20 +6.3 47
3 Celtic 23 14 3 6 +18 +10.2 45
4 Motherwell 23 10 10 3 +18 +8.0 40
5 Hibernian 23 9 8 6 +10 -0.4 35
6 Falkirk 23 9 6 8 -2 +2.7 33
7 Aberdeen 23 8 4 11 -4 -7.3 28
8 Dundee United 22 5 10 7 -6 -7.2 25
9 Dundee 23 6 4 13 -18 -7.7 22
10 St Mirren 22 4 7 11 -14 +2.4 19
11 Kilmarnock 23 2 8 13 -23 -9.0 14
12 Livingston 23 1 8 14 -24 -6.3 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Kilmarnock Aberdeen
6′
🟨 Graeme Shinnie
1–0 B. Lyons
G. Kiltie
12′
2–0 B. Anderson
T. John-Jules
14′
35′
🔁 S. Nilsen
↦ M. Knoester
David Watson 🟨
42′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 T. Olusanya
↦ K. Bilalovic
51′
🟥 Graeme Shinnie
52′
🟨 Liam Morrison
53′
ℹ️ Graeme Shinnie
VAR:
56′
🔁 L. Clarkson
↦ K. Nisbet
R. McKenzie 🔁
↦ D. Watson
58′
3–0 T. John-Jules
B. Anderson
59′
F. Curtis 🔁
↦ G. Kiltie
63′
66′
🔁 M. Lazetic
↦ T. Keskinen
66′
🔁 A. Jensen
↦ M. Frame
66′
🔁 K. Kjartansson
↦ L. Cameron
J. Thomson 🔁
↦ L. Polworth
79′
J. Hugill 🔁
↦ B. Anderson
79′
Dominic Thompson 🟨
83′
84′
🟨 Kjartan Mar Kjartansson
M. Dackers 🔁
↦ T. John-Jules
88′
Ethan Brown 🟨
94′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Kilmarnock

4-3-1-2
13 K. Roos G
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen D
25 E. Schilte-Brown D
6 R. Deas D
3 D. Thompson D
8 B. Lyons M
12 D. Watson M
31 L. Polworth M
11 G. Kiltie M
19 B. Anderson F
24 T. John-Jules F
Bench (9)
1 M. Stryjek
9 M. Dackers
22 J. Thomson
4 Z. Williams
14 G. Stanger
44 J. Hugill
7 R. McKenzie
20 N. Clescenco
52 F. Curtis

Coach: Kris Doolan

Aberdeen

4-1-4-1
1 D. Mitov G
2 N. Devlin D
23 L. Morrison D
5 M. Knoester D
3 M. Frame D
4 G. Shinnie M
14 K. Bilalovic M
25 L. Cameron M
16 S. Armstrong M
81 T. Keskinen M
15 K. Nisbet F
Bench (9)
99 P. Bratveit
6 S. Nilsen
10 L. Clarkson
11 N. Milanovic
20 T. Olusanya
27 M. Lazetic
28 A. Jensen
29 K. Kjartansson
38 D. Lobban

Coach: Peter Leven

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,92
U
3,18
B
2,39
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,97
U2,5
1,77
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

L Wilson · 13 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,38 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.