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Bundesliga

Referee: B Cortus

Union Berlin

S T T T T

2–0

Full-time

Freiburg

T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

14%

57%

Points per game

0,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

57%

86%

Both score Ø 64%

57%

71%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

0,9

2,1

Conceded

1,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%

18 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

21 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 16. · Freiburg 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	7	5	1	1	+9	16
2	Wolfsburg	7	4	3	0	+6	15
3	Bayern Munich	7	4	2	1	+12	14
4	Freiburg	7	4	2	1	+8	14
5	RB Leipzig	7	4	2	1	+8	14
6	Schalke 04	7	4	2	1	+7	14
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+4	14
8	Leverkusen	8	4	2	2	+1	14
9	Dortmund	7	3	3	1	+8	12
10	Hertha	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Werder Bremen	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Hoffenheim	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Mainz	7	2	0	5	-10	6
14	Augsburg	7	1	2	4	-11	5
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	1	1	5	-5	4
16	Union Berlin	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	FC Koln	7	1	1	5	-11	4
18	Paderborn	7	0	1	6	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	2	0	+5	11
2	Leverkusen	4	2	2	0	+3	8
3	Wolfsburg	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Bayern Munich	4	2	1	1	+8	7
5	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+8	7
6	M'gladbach	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Schalke 04	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Hertha	3	2	0	1	+0	6
9	Freiburg	4	1	2	1	+2	5
10	RB Leipzig	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Mainz	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-4	3
14	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-4	3
15	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-5	3
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	FC Koln	3	0	0	3	-7	0
18	Paderborn	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+9	10
2	Freiburg	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	M'gladbach	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Schalke 04	3	2	1	0	+6	7
5	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Wolfsburg	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Leverkusen	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Werder Bremen	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Dortmund	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Hoffenheim	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Hertha	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	FC Koln	4	1	1	2	-4	4
13	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	Mainz	4	1	0	3	-8	3
16	Paderborn	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Union Berlin	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Augsburg	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.