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Premier League

Referee: David Coote

Aston Villa

T U T U S

2–1

Full-time

Brighton

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

63%

38%

Both score Ø 44%

63%

25%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

48% Possession 52%

24 Shots 20

8 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aston Villa 16. · Brighton 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	8	0	0	+14	24
2	Man City	8	5	1	2	+18	16
3	Arsenal	8	4	3	1	+2	15
4	Leicester	8	4	2	2	+7	14
5	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Crystal Palace	8	4	2	2	+0	14
7	Burnley	8	3	3	2	+2	12
8	West Ham	9	3	3	3	-2	12
9	Tottenham	8	3	2	3	+2	11
10	Bournemouth	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Wolves	8	2	4	2	+0	10
12	Everton	9	3	1	5	-5	10
13	Man United	8	2	3	3	+1	9
14	Sheffield United	8	2	3	3	+0	9
15	Brighton	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Aston Villa	8	2	2	4	+1	8
17	Newcastle	8	2	2	4	-8	8
18	Southampton	8	2	1	5	-7	7
19	Norwich	8	2	0	6	-11	6
20	Watford	8	0	3	5	-16	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Leicester	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+3	10
4	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+6	9
5	Burnley	4	3	0	1	+3	9
6	Everton	5	3	0	2	+0	9
7	Crystal Palace	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Man City	4	2	1	1	+10	7
9	Man United	4	2	1	1	+4	7
10	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	West Ham	4	2	0	2	-2	6
12	Chelsea	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Brighton	4	1	2	1	+1	5
14	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	+1	5
15	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	+0	5
17	Wolves	4	1	2	1	-1	5
18	Sheffield United	4	1	0	3	-2	3
19	Watford	4	0	2	2	-5	2
20	Southampton	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Man City	4	3	0	1	+8	9
3	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Sheffield United	4	1	3	0	+2	6
5	West Ham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
6	Bournemouth	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Southampton	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	-3	6
9	Wolves	4	1	2	1	+1	5
10	Arsenal	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Leicester	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	+0	3
14	Burnley	4	0	3	1	-1	3
15	Newcastle	4	1	0	3	-8	3
16	Man United	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Tottenham	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Everton	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Watford	4	0	1	3	-11	1
20	Norwich	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.