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Super League
Referee: L Cibelli
Zurich
S S S S S
3–0
Full-time
Lugano
S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Zurich Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
2,5
1,0
Conceded
0,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
+2,0
-0,8
This season — Super League · 20/20 matches
Win Ø 60%
70%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
75%
40%
Both score Ø 58%
65%
50%
Average goals
3,7
2,7
Scored
2,4
1,4
Conceded
1,4
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

38% Possession 62%
17 Shots 13
7 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 4
1 Offside 0
7 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Zurich 1. · Lugano 4. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Zurich 20 14 4 2 +20 46
2 Young Boys 21 11 6 4 +24 39
3 Basel 21 9 10 2 +20 37
4 Lugano 20 10 3 7 +1 33
5 Servette 21 8 4 9 -5 28
6 Grasshoppers 21 6 8 7 +4 26
7 Sion 20 7 4 9 -9 25
8 St. Gallen 21 6 5 10 -9 23
9 Lausanne 21 2 6 13 -26 12
10 Luzern 20 1 8 11 -20 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

16. Oct -21 Zurich – Lugano 1–0 25. Jul -21 Lugano – Zurich 0–2 2. May -21 Zurich – Lugano 3–0 7. Mar -21 Lugano – Zurich 0–1 13. Dec -20 Lugano – Zurich 0–1

Match report

Zurich Lugano
1–0 A. Marchesano ⚽
A. Tosin
12′
24′
🟨 Jonathan Sabbatini
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Ž. Celar
↦ M. Bottani
52′
ℹ️ Fabio Daprelà
VAR: Penalty awarded
Fidan Aliti 🟨
53′
B. Džemaili 🔁
↦ B. Krasniqi
59′
W. Gnonto 🔁
↦ A. Tosin
59′
59′
🔁 M. Haile-Selassie
↦ I. Aliseda
59′
🔁 Yuri
↦ M. Facchinetti
59′
🔁 N. Lavanchy
↦ K. Hajrizi
2–0 W. Gnonto ⚽
Adrià Guerrero
64′
3–0 A. Ceesay ⚽
O. Doumbia
66′
67′
🔁 N. Muci
↦ O. Custodio
M. Hornschuh 🔁
↦ A. Marchesano
73′
77′
🟨 Fabio Daprelà
A. Gogia 🔁
↦ N. Boranijašević
82′
B. Kramer 🔁
↦ A. Ceesay
82′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Zurich

3-1-4-2
25 Y. Brecher G
19 N. Boranijašević M
6 F. Aliti D
31 M. Kryeziu D
3 Adrià Guerrero M
4 B. Omeragić D
10 A. Marchesano M
20 O. Doumbia M
7 B. Krasniqi M
9 A. Ceesay F
15 A. Tosin F
Bench (9)
21 B. Džemaili
22 W. Gnonto
16 M. Hornschuh
39 A. Gogia
18 B. Kramer
2 L. Kamberi
24 A. Ćorić
1 Ž. Kostadinović
28 K. Mets

Coach: A. Breitenreiter

Lugano

3-1-4-2
26 A. Saipi G
3 R. Ziegler D
30 F. Daprelà D
7 M. Facchinetti M
4 K. Hajrizi D
14 J. Sabbatini M
20 O. Custodio M
27 K. Rüegg M
24 S. Lovrić M
10 M. Bottani F
31 I. Aliseda F
Bench (7)
19 Ž. Celar
18 M. Haile-Selassie
21 Yuri
16 N. Lavanchy
99 N. Muci
58 S. Osigwe
8 A. Durrer

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

L Cibelli · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.