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Premier League

Referee: M Atkinson

Burnley

T T U U U

0–1

Full-time

Liverpool

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,7

3,0

Scored

0,5

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 20/23 matches

Win Ø 35%

65%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

40%

74%

Both score Ø 49%

55%

43%

Average goals

2,3

3,4

Scored

0,9

2,6

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

33% Possession 67%

8 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 8

7 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 20. · Liverpool 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	25	20	3	2	+47	63
2	Liverpool	23	15	6	2	+41	51
3	Chelsea	24	13	8	3	+30	47
4	West Ham	24	12	4	8	+11	40
5	Man United	24	11	7	6	+6	40
6	Arsenal	22	12	3	7	+9	39
7	Tottenham	21	11	3	7	+1	36
8	Wolves	22	10	4	8	+2	34
9	Brighton	23	7	12	4	+2	33
10	Southampton	24	6	11	7	-7	29
11	Aston Villa	22	8	3	11	-4	27
12	Crystal Palace	24	5	11	8	-3	26
13	Leicester	21	7	5	9	-5	26
14	Brentford	25	6	6	13	-14	24
15	Leeds	23	5	8	10	-19	23
16	Everton	22	6	4	12	-10	22
17	Newcastle	22	3	9	10	-20	18
18	Norwich	24	4	5	15	-36	17
19	Watford	23	4	3	16	-20	15
20	Burnley	20	1	11	8	-11	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	10	1	1	+28	31
2	Liverpool	11	8	3	0	+21	27
3	Chelsea	12	6	5	1	+17	23
4	Arsenal	11	7	2	2	+10	23
5	Tottenham	11	7	1	3	+5	22
6	West Ham	12	6	2	4	+5	20
7	Man United	12	6	2	4	+3	20
8	Crystal Palace	12	4	5	3	+6	17
9	Leicester	11	5	2	4	+3	17
10	Southampton	11	3	7	1	+4	16
11	Everton	11	5	1	5	+1	16
12	Aston Villa	11	4	3	4	+1	15
13	Brighton	11	3	5	3	-1	14
14	Wolves	11	4	2	5	-1	14
15	Brentford	13	4	2	7	-3	14
16	Leeds	11	3	4	4	-4	13
17	Newcastle	12	2	6	4	-7	12
18	Burnley	9	1	6	2	+0	9
19	Norwich	13	2	3	8	-17	9
20	Watford	12	2	1	9	-16	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	Liverpool	12	7	3	2	+20	24
3	Chelsea	12	7	3	2	+13	24
4	West Ham	12	6	2	4	+6	20
5	Man United	12	5	5	2	+3	20
6	Wolves	11	6	2	3	+3	20
7	Brighton	12	4	7	1	+3	19
8	Arsenal	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Tottenham	10	4	2	4	-4	14
10	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-11	13
11	Aston Villa	11	4	0	7	-5	12
12	Brentford	12	2	4	6	-11	10
13	Leeds	12	2	4	6	-15	10
14	Leicester	10	2	3	5	-8	9
15	Crystal Palace	12	1	6	5	-9	9
16	Watford	11	2	2	7	-4	8
17	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-19	8
18	Everton	11	1	3	7	-11	6
19	Newcastle	10	1	3	6	-13	6
20	Burnley	11	0	5	6	-11	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.