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Ligue 1

Referee: E Wattellier

Metz

U T S T U

1–2

Full-time

Marseille

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 35%

17%

52%

Points per game

0,9

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

52%

35%

Both score Ø 50%

52%

48%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,9

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 8

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 19. · Marseille 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	24	18	5	1	+33	59
2	Marseille	23	12	7	4	+16	43
3	Nice	24	13	4	7	+15	43
4	Strasbourg	24	12	5	7	+17	41
5	Lyon	24	10	8	6	+3	38
6	Rennes	24	11	4	9	+21	37
7	Monaco	24	10	7	7	+11	37
8	Lens	24	10	6	8	+4	36
9	Nantes	24	10	5	9	+3	35
10	Lille	24	9	8	7	-3	35
11	Montpellier	24	10	4	10	+4	34
12	Brest	24	8	7	9	-3	31
13	Angers	24	7	8	9	-5	29
14	Reims	24	6	9	9	-1	27
15	Clermont	24	6	6	12	-17	24
16	Troyes	24	5	6	13	-15	21
17	Lorient	24	4	9	11	-18	21
18	St Etienne	24	5	6	13	-21	21
19	Metz	23	4	8	11	-19	20
20	Bordeaux	24	4	8	12	-25	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	11	1	0	+22	34
2	Lyon	13	7	5	1	+10	26
3	Rennes	12	8	1	3	+19	25
4	Monaco	13	7	4	2	+14	25
5	Strasbourg	12	7	2	3	+14	23
6	Montpellier	13	7	2	4	+8	23
7	Nantes	12	7	2	3	+7	23
8	Lens	12	6	4	2	+9	22
9	Marseille	12	5	5	2	+9	20
10	Lille	11	5	4	2	-1	19
11	Brest	12	5	3	4	+3	18
12	Nice	12	5	3	4	+2	18
13	Lorient	11	4	4	3	+1	16
14	Angers	12	5	1	6	-1	16
15	Reims	11	4	3	4	+5	15
16	Clermont	12	3	4	5	-3	13
17	Troyes	12	2	5	5	-2	11
18	Bordeaux	12	2	4	6	-5	10
19	St Etienne	12	2	4	6	-10	10
20	Metz	11	1	4	6	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	12	8	1	3	+13	25
2	Paris SG	12	7	4	1	+11	25
3	Marseille	11	7	2	2	+7	23
4	Strasbourg	12	5	3	4	+3	18
5	Lille	13	4	4	5	-2	16
6	Lens	12	4	2	6	-5	14
7	Angers	12	2	7	3	-4	13
8	Brest	12	3	4	5	-6	13
9	Metz	12	3	4	5	-10	13
10	Rennes	12	3	3	6	+2	12
11	Monaco	11	3	3	5	-3	12
12	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12
13	Reims	13	2	6	5	-6	12
14	Lyon	11	3	3	5	-7	12
15	Montpellier	11	3	2	6	-4	11
16	St Etienne	12	3	2	7	-11	11
17	Clermont	12	3	2	7	-14	11
18	Troyes	12	3	1	8	-13	10
19	Bordeaux	12	2	4	6	-20	10
20	Lorient	13	0	5	8	-19	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.