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Championship

Referee: K Stroud

Swansea

U T T S T

3–1

Full-time

Bristol City

S T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

17%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,3

4,5

Scored

0,3

1,8

Conceded

1,0

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

This season — Championship · 30/32 matches

Win Ø 34%

33%

34%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

50%

66%

Both score Ø 56%

40%

72%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

71% Possession 29%

16 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 18. · Bristol City 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	31	20	7	4	+53	67
2	Bournemouth	31	17	8	6	+23	59
3	Blackburn	32	16	8	8	+16	56
4	QPR	31	15	7	9	+11	52
5	Middlesbrough	31	15	7	9	+11	52
6	Sheffield United	30	15	6	9	+12	51
7	West Brom	32	14	9	9	+12	51
8	Preston	34	13	12	9	+2	51
9	Coventry	31	14	8	9	+11	50
10	Huddersfield	31	13	11	7	+8	50
11	Luton	30	13	8	9	+8	47
12	Nott'm Forest	30	13	7	10	+10	46
13	Stoke	31	13	7	11	+8	46
14	Blackpool	32	12	8	12	-1	44
15	Millwall	31	10	10	11	-3	40
16	Bristol City	32	11	7	14	-13	40
17	Derby	32	9	12	11	-4	39
18	Swansea	30	10	8	12	-6	38
19	Birmingham	34	9	10	15	-15	37
20	Cardiff	32	10	6	16	-10	36
21	Hull	32	9	5	18	-11	32
22	Reading	31	9	4	18	-22	31
23	Peterboro	29	5	5	19	-37	20
24	Peterborough	29	5	5	19	-37	20
25	Barnsley	31	3	9	19	-26	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	17	11	3	3	+16	36
2	Middlesbrough	17	11	2	4	+13	35
3	Fulham	16	10	4	2	+27	34
4	West Brom	15	9	5	1	+16	32
5	Coventry	16	9	3	4	+12	30
6	QPR	16	8	5	3	+10	29
7	Huddersfield	15	8	5	2	+8	29
8	Blackpool	18	9	2	7	+1	29
9	Luton	15	8	4	3	+10	28
10	Bournemouth	14	8	3	3	+14	27
11	Stoke	16	8	3	5	+8	27
12	Derby	15	7	6	2	+7	27
13	Millwall	15	7	5	3	+5	26
14	Preston	16	6	8	2	+4	26
15	Swansea	15	7	4	4	+6	25
16	Nott'm Forest	16	7	3	6	+3	24
17	Sheffield United	13	7	2	4	+12	23
18	Birmingham	17	6	5	6	+0	23
19	Bristol City	16	6	5	5	+0	23
20	Reading	17	5	4	8	-9	19
21	Hull	17	5	3	9	-4	18
22	Cardiff	15	5	1	9	-1	16
23	Peterboro	14	4	4	6	-3	16
24	Peterborough	14	4	4	6	-3	16
25	Barnsley	15	3	4	8	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	15	10	3	2	+26	33
2	Bournemouth	17	9	5	3	+9	32
3	Sheffield United	17	8	4	5	+0	28
4	Preston	18	7	4	7	-2	25
5	QPR	15	7	2	6	+1	23
6	Nott'm Forest	14	6	4	4	+7	22
7	Huddersfield	16	5	6	5	+0	21
8	Blackburn	15	5	5	5	+0	20
9	Coventry	15	5	5	5	-1	20
10	Cardiff	17	5	5	7	-9	20
11	Stoke	15	5	4	6	+0	19
12	Luton	15	5	4	6	-2	19
13	West Brom	17	5	4	8	-4	19
14	Middlesbrough	14	4	5	5	-2	17
15	Bristol City	16	5	2	9	-13	17
16	Blackpool	14	3	6	5	-2	15
17	Hull	15	4	2	9	-7	14
18	Millwall	16	3	5	8	-8	14
19	Birmingham	17	3	5	9	-15	14
20	Swansea	15	3	4	8	-12	13
21	Derby	17	2	6	9	-11	12
22	Reading	14	4	0	10	-13	12
23	Barnsley	16	0	5	11	-18	5
24	Peterboro	15	1	1	13	-34	4
25	Peterborough	15	1	1	13	-34	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.