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Bundesliga

Referee: M Gräfe

Leverkusen

S S S T S

2–4

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,5

3,8

Scored

2,3

3,5

Conceded

1,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+3,2

This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 66%

59%

72%

Points per game

1,9

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

62%

79%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

3,1

3,9

Scored

1,9

3,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

48% Possession 52%

10 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 10

2 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

4 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 4

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 5. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	29	21	4	4	+58	67
2	Dortmund	29	18	6	5	+45	60
3	RB Leipzig	29	16	10	3	+43	58
4	M'gladbach	30	17	5	8	+21	56
5	Leverkusen	29	17	5	7	+18	56
6	Wolfsburg	29	11	9	9	+5	42
7	Hoffenheim	29	12	6	11	-8	42
8	Freiburg	30	11	8	11	-2	41
9	Hertha	29	10	8	11	-7	38
10	Schalke 04	29	9	10	10	-12	37
11	Ein Frankfurt	29	10	5	14	-4	35
12	FC Koln	29	10	4	15	-10	34
13	Augsburg	29	8	7	14	-16	31
14	Union Berlin	29	9	4	16	-18	31
15	Mainz	29	8	4	17	-25	28
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	29	6	9	14	-27	27
17	Werder Bremen	29	6	7	16	-32	25
18	Paderborn	29	4	7	18	-29	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	2	2	+35	35
2	Dortmund	14	10	3	1	+34	33
3	M'gladbach	15	10	2	3	+15	32
4	RB Leipzig	14	7	6	1	+19	27
5	Leverkusen	14	7	4	3	+9	25
6	Freiburg	15	7	2	6	+1	23
7	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	4	4	+9	22
8	FC Koln	15	6	3	6	+2	21
9	Schalke 04	15	5	6	4	-4	21
10	Union Berlin	14	6	2	6	+0	20
11	Augsburg	14	5	4	5	+2	19
12	Hoffenheim	15	6	1	8	-13	19
13	Wolfsburg	15	4	6	5	+0	18
14	Hertha	15	5	3	7	-8	18
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	4	4	6	-9	16
16	Mainz	15	4	2	9	-12	14
17	Paderborn	15	2	2	11	-19	8
18	Werder Bremen	14	1	3	10	-24	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	2	2	+23	32
2	RB Leipzig	15	9	4	2	+24	31
3	Leverkusen	15	10	1	4	+9	31
4	Dortmund	15	8	3	4	+11	27
5	M'gladbach	15	7	3	5	+6	24
6	Wolfsburg	14	7	3	4	+5	24
7	Hoffenheim	14	6	5	3	+5	23
8	Hertha	14	5	5	4	+1	20
9	Werder Bremen	15	5	4	6	-8	19
10	Freiburg	15	4	6	5	-3	18
11	Schalke 04	14	4	4	6	-8	16
12	Mainz	14	4	2	8	-13	14
13	FC Koln	14	4	1	9	-12	13
14	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	1	10	-13	13
15	Augsburg	15	3	3	9	-18	12
16	Paderborn	14	2	5	7	-10	11
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	2	5	8	-18	11
18	Union Berlin	15	3	2	10	-18	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.