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Bundesliga

Referee: F Zwayer

RB Leipzig

U S U S U

0–2

Full-time

Dortmund

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,8

2,3

Scored

2,7

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 58%

53%

63%

Points per game

2,0

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

69%

72%

Both score Ø 57%

66%

47%

Average goals

3,5

3,7

Scored

2,5

2,6

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

47% Possession 53%

16 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 1

0 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 3. · Dortmund 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	24	4	4	+62	76
2	Dortmund	32	20	6	6	+45	66
3	RB Leipzig	32	17	12	3	+45	63
4	Leverkusen	32	18	6	8	+18	60
5	M'gladbach	32	18	5	9	+23	59
6	Wolfsburg	32	12	10	10	+3	46
7	Hoffenheim	32	13	7	12	-8	46
8	Freiburg	32	12	9	11	-1	45
9	Ein Frankfurt	32	12	5	15	-2	41
10	Schalke 04	32	9	12	11	-13	39
11	Hertha	32	10	8	14	-12	38
12	Union Berlin	32	11	5	16	-16	38
13	FC Koln	32	10	5	17	-13	35
14	Augsburg	32	9	8	15	-17	35
15	Mainz	32	10	4	18	-22	34
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	32	6	11	15	-28	29
17	Werder Bremen	32	7	7	18	-30	28
18	Paderborn	32	4	8	20	-34	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	2	2	+36	38
2	Dortmund	16	11	3	2	+33	36
3	M'gladbach	16	11	2	3	+18	35
4	RB Leipzig	16	7	8	1	+19	29
5	Leverkusen	16	8	4	4	+9	28
6	Freiburg	16	8	2	6	+2	26
7	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	4	5	+8	25
8	Union Berlin	16	7	3	6	+1	24
9	Schalke 04	16	5	7	4	-4	22
10	FC Koln	16	6	3	7	+1	21
11	Augsburg	16	5	5	6	+0	20
12	Wolfsburg	16	4	7	5	+0	19
13	Hoffenheim	16	6	1	9	-15	19
14	Hertha	16	5	3	8	-11	18
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	4	5	7	-10	17
16	Mainz	16	4	2	10	-13	14
17	Paderborn	16	2	2	12	-23	8
18	Werder Bremen	16	1	3	12	-26	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	2	2	+26	38
2	RB Leipzig	16	10	4	2	+26	34
3	Leverkusen	16	10	2	4	+9	32
4	Dortmund	16	9	3	4	+12	30
5	Hoffenheim	16	7	6	3	+7	27
6	Wolfsburg	16	8	3	5	+3	27
7	M'gladbach	16	7	3	6	+5	24
8	Werder Bremen	16	6	4	6	-4	22
9	Hertha	16	5	5	6	-1	20
10	Mainz	16	6	2	8	-9	20
11	Freiburg	16	4	7	5	-3	19
12	Schalke 04	16	4	5	7	-9	17
13	Ein Frankfurt	16	5	1	10	-10	16
14	Augsburg	16	4	3	9	-17	15
15	FC Koln	16	4	2	10	-14	14
16	Union Berlin	16	4	2	10	-17	14
17	Paderborn	16	2	6	8	-11	12
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	2	6	8	-18	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.