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Bundesliga
Referee: R Schröder
Werder Bremen
U U T T T
1–2
Full-time
Dortmund
T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Werder Bremen Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,2
4,2
Scored
1,2
2,0
Conceded
2,0
2,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,2
This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 37%
18%
55%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
36%
64%
Both score Ø 64%
82%
45%
Average goals
3,0
3,5
Scored
1,3
2,1
Conceded
1,7
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

45% Possession 55%
7 Shots 15
3 Shots on target 9
1 Blocked shots 2
7 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 4
1 Offside 4
10 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Werder Bremen 13. · Dortmund 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Leverkusen 11 7 4 0 +13 25
2 Bayern Munich 11 7 3 1 +18 24
3 RB Leipzig 11 7 3 1 +14 24
4 Wolfsburg 11 5 6 0 +7 21
5 Dortmund 11 6 1 4 +8 19
6 M'gladbach 12 4 6 2 +3 18
7 Union Berlin 11 4 5 2 +8 17
8 Stuttgart 11 4 5 2 +7 17
9 Ein Frankfurt 12 2 8 2 -3 14
10 Augsburg 11 3 4 4 -3 13
11 Hertha 11 3 3 5 -1 12
12 Hoffenheim 11 3 3 5 -2 12
13 Werder Bremen 11 2 5 4 -5 11
14 Freiburg 11 2 5 4 -8 11
15 FC Koln 11 2 4 5 -4 10
16 Bielefeld 11 2 1 8 -14 7
17 Mainz 11 1 2 8 -13 5
18 Schalke 04 11 0 4 7 -25 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Werder Bremen Dortmund
12′
Raphaël Guerreiro 0–1
1–1 K. Möhwald
M. Eggestein
28′
35′
🟨 Marco Reus
Half-time 1–1
Christian Groß 🟨
54′
59′
🟨 Axel Witsel
L. Bittencourt 🔁
↦ K. Möhwald
66′
N. Woltemade 🔁
↦ J. Sargent
66′
P. Erras 🔁
↦ Y. Ōsako
72′
73′
🔁 J. Brandt
↦ J. Bellingham
78′
M. Reus 1–2
80′
🔁 E. Can
↦ Y. Moukoko
85′
🔁 D. Zagadou
↦ M. Hummels
85′
🔁 Ł. Piszczek
↦ Mateu Morey
R. Schmid 🔁
↦ J. Mbom
86′
F. Agu 🔁
↦ Ö. Toprak
86′
Nick Woltemade 🟨
87′
Romano Schmid 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Werder Bremen

3-5-2
1 J. Pavlenka G
36 C. Groß D
21 Ö. Toprak D
23 T. Gebre Selassie M
5 L. Augustinsson M
32 M. Friedl D
6 K. Möhwald M
35 M. Eggestein M
34 J. Mbom M
8 Y. Ōsako F
19 J. Sargent F
Bench (9)
10 L. Bittencourt
41 N. Woltemade
29 P. Erras
20 R. Schmid
17 F. Agu
13 M. Veljkovic
22 T. Chong
27 S. Kapino
18 N. Moisander

Coach: F. Kohfeldt

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
1 R. Bürki G
15 M. Hummels D
13 Raphaël Guerreiro D
16 M. Akanji D
2 Mateu Morey D
28 A. Witsel M
7 J. Sancho M
32 G. Reyna M
22 J. Bellingham M
11 M. Reus M
18 Y. Moukoko F
Bench (9)
19 J. Brandt
23 E. Can
5 D. Zagadou
26 Ł. Piszczek
20 Reinier
14 N. Schulz
35 M. Hitz
8 M. Dahoud
30 F. Passlack

Coach: E. Terzić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
5,95
U
4,68
B ✓
1,50
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,57
U2,5
2,40
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Schröder · 105 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.