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Premier League

Referee: D Coote

Man City

S S T T S

3–0

Full-time

Wolves

U U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Wolves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 45%

68%

21%

Points per game

2,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

68%

37%

Both score Ø 48%

58%

37%

Average goals

3,7

2,1

Scored

2,6

0,6

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,78 xG 0,79

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Wolves 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	15	2	1	+28	–	47
2	Man City	19	13	3	3	+30	+1.6	42
3	Newcastle	20	10	9	1	+22	+0.9	39
4	Man United	19	12	3	4	+8	+1.6	39
5	Tottenham	20	10	3	7	+8	-1.6	33
6	Brighton	19	9	4	6	+10	+1.2	31
7	Fulham	20	9	4	7	+3	–	31
8	Liverpool	19	8	5	6	+9	-0.2	29
9	Brentford	19	7	8	4	+4	–	29
10	Chelsea	20	8	5	7	+1	+0.2	29
11	Aston Villa	20	8	4	8	-4	+0.8	28
12	Crystal Palace	20	6	6	8	-9	-2.5	24
13	Nott'm Forest	20	5	6	9	-19	+0.5	21
14	Leicester	20	5	3	12	-7	-1.2	18
15	West Ham	20	5	3	12	-8	+1.7	18
16	Leeds	18	4	5	9	-7	–	17
17	Wolves	19	4	5	10	-15	–	17
18	Bournemouth	20	4	5	11	-23	-0.5	17
19	Everton	20	3	6	11	-13	-1.7	15
20	Southampton	20	4	3	13	-18	-0.8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	1	1	+23	+1.6	25
2	Arsenal	8	7	1	0	+14	–	22
3	Newcastle	10	6	4	0	+13	–	22
4	Man United	9	7	1	1	+12	–	22
5	Liverpool	10	6	3	1	+14	-0.2	21
6	Brentford	10	5	4	1	+10	–	19
7	Tottenham	10	6	0	4	+6	–	18
8	Fulham	10	5	3	2	+3	–	18
9	Chelsea	9	5	2	2	+6	–	17
10	Aston Villa	10	5	2	3	+4	–	17
11	Nott'm Forest	10	4	3	3	+1	–	15
12	Crystal Palace	11	4	3	4	-5	-2.5	15
13	Brighton	9	4	2	3	+6	–	14
14	West Ham	10	4	1	5	-1	+1.7	13
15	Leeds	9	3	3	3	+1	–	12
16	Bournemouth	10	3	3	4	-1	-0.5	12
17	Wolves	10	3	2	5	-8	–	11
18	Leicester	10	2	3	5	-1	-1.2	9
19	Everton	10	2	2	6	-5	–	8
20	Southampton	10	1	3	6	-8	-0.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	8	1	1	+14	–	25
2	Newcastle	10	4	5	1	+9	+0.9	17
3	Man City	9	5	2	2	+7	–	17
4	Brighton	10	5	2	3	+4	+1.2	17
5	Man United	10	5	2	3	-4	+1.6	17
6	Tottenham	10	4	3	3	+2	-1.6	15
7	Fulham	10	4	1	5	+0	–	13
8	Chelsea	11	3	3	5	-5	+0.2	12
9	Aston Villa	10	3	2	5	-8	+0.8	11
10	Brentford	9	2	4	3	-6	–	10
11	Crystal Palace	9	2	3	4	-4	–	9
12	Leicester	10	3	0	7	-6	–	9
13	Southampton	10	3	0	7	-10	–	9
14	Liverpool	9	2	2	5	-5	–	8
15	Everton	10	1	4	5	-8	-1.7	7
16	Wolves	9	1	3	5	-7	–	6
17	Nott'm Forest	10	1	3	6	-20	+0.5	6
18	West Ham	10	1	2	7	-7	–	5
19	Leeds	9	1	2	6	-8	–	5
20	Bournemouth	10	1	2	7	-22	–	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.