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Bundesliga

Referee: R Schröder

Dortmund

S T S S U

4–2

Full-time

Heidenheim

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,8

Scored

1,7

3,2

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

1,0

3,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

2,44 xG 1,78

61% Possession 39%

13 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 4. · Heidenheim 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Heidenheim	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.6	6
2	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.0	6
3	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.9	6
4	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.9	4
5	Union Berlin	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
6	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
7	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
8	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.3	3
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.0	3
10	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.9	3
11	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.3	3
12	Mainz	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
13	Werder Bremen	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
14	Stuttgart	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
15	Augsburg	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.7	1
16	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.0	0
17	St Pauli	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0
18	Bochum	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.4	3
2	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
3	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
4	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
5	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
6	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
7	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
8	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
9	Stuttgart	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
10	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
11	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
12	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
13	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
14	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
15	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
16	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.0	0
17	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
18	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.0	3
2	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
3	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
4	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
5	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
6	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
7	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
8	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
9	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
10	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
11	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
12	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
13	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
14	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
15	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
16	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
17	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
18	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.