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2. Bundesliga
Referee: M Burda
3–3
Full-time
Paderborn
S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preußen Münster Paderborn
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,2
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
3,2
2,7
Scored
0,3
2,0
Conceded
2,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
-2,5
+1,3
This season — 2. Bundesliga · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
50%
75%
Average goals
2,5
2,3
Scored
0,5
1,5
Conceded
2,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

38% Possession 62%
11 Shots 20
4 Shots on target 9
5 Blocked shots 6
6 Goalkeeper saves 1
7 Corners 6
1 Offside 3
6 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Preußen Münster 16. · Paderborn 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Fortuna Dusseldorf 4 3 1 0 +4 10
2 Karlsruhe 4 3 1 0 +3 10
3 Greuther Furth 4 2 2 0 +6 8
4 Magdeburg 4 2 2 0 +6 8
5 Paderborn 4 2 2 0 +3 8
6 FC Koln 4 2 1 1 +6 7
7 Hamburg 4 2 1 1 +3 7
8 Hertha 4 2 1 1 +2 7
9 Hannover 4 2 1 1 +2 7
10 Kaiserslautern 4 2 1 1 +1 7
11 Elversberg 4 1 2 1 +3 5
12 Schalke 04 4 1 1 2 +0 4
13 Nurnberg 4 1 1 2 -3 4
14 Regensburg 4 1 0 3 -7 3
15 Ulm 4 0 1 3 -3 1
16 Preußen Münster 4 0 1 3 -6 1
17 Darmstadt 4 0 1 3 -8 1
18 Braunschweig 4 0 0 4 -12 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Preußen Münster Paderborn
1–0 J. Mees
L. Frenkert
19′
Torge Paetow 🟨
27′
37′
F. Bilbija 1–1
42′
🟨 Sven Michel
Half-time 1–1
A. Németh 🔁
↦ L. Bazzoli
46′
46′
R. Obermair 1–2
F. Götze
54′
🟨 Calvin Brackelmann
C. Makridis 🔁
↦ M. Lorenz
63′
66′
🔁 L. Herrmann
↦ S. Klaas
70′
🟨 Felix Götze
H. Friðjónsson 🔁
↦ D. Kyerewaa
72′
72′
🔁 I. Ansah
↦ K. Kostons
72′
🔁 A. Grimaldi
↦ S. Michel
T. Deters 🔁
↦ J. Grodowski
77′
2–2 H. Friðjónsson
J. Hendrix
78′
82′
🔁 V. Musliu
↦ C. Brackelmann
82′
🔁 F. Platte
↦ F. Bilbija
85′
I. Ansah 2–3
A. Grimaldi
Lukas Frenkert 🟨
87′
3–3 J. Mees
T. Deters
91′
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Preußen Münster

4-2-3-1
1 J. Schenk G
27 J. ter Horst D
16 T. Paetow D
29 L. Frenkert D
2 M. Kirkeskov D
32 L. Bazzoli M
20 J. Hendrix M
7 D. Kyerewaa M
8 J. Mees M
18 M. Lorenz M
9 J. Grodowski F
Bench (9)
28 A. Németh
14 C. Makridis
31 H. Friðjónsson
11 T. Deters
5 Y. Bouchama
24 N. Koulis
15 S. Scherder
44 M. Bräuer
21 R. Preißinger

Coach: S. Hildmann

Paderborn

3-4-3
1 P. Boevink G
25 T. Scheller D
20 F. Götze D
4 C. Brackelmann D
23 R. Obermair M
5 S. Castañeda M
26 S. Klaas M
32 A. Zehnter M
7 F. Bilbija F
10 K. Kostons F
11 S. Michel F
Bench (9)
19 L. Herrmann
29 I. Ansah
39 A. Grimaldi
16 V. Musliu
36 F. Platte
8 D. Kinsombi
30 M. Schubert
9 M. Baur
17 L. Curda

Coach: L. Kwasniok

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,28
U ✓
3,84
B
2,03
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,55
U2,5
2,42
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Burda · 52 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,04 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.