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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Arouca

T T T S T

0–3

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,5

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

4,0

Scored

0,5

3,3

Conceded

2,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+2,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

25%

100%

Points per game

0,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

25%

75%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

1,8

4,5

Scored

0,5

4,0

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+3,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,23 xG 3,21

38% Possession 62%

6 Shots 21

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 11

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 8

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 14. · Sp Lisbon 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+14	+10.6	12
2	Porto	4	3	0	1	+5	+4.6	9
3	Famalicao	4	3	0	1	+5	+1.2	9
4	Santa Clara	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.3	9
5	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+2	+4.2	9
6	Sp Braga	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.3	8
7	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.1	7
8	Moreirense	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.5	7
9	Rio Ave	4	2	0	2	-2	-4.5	6
10	Gil Vicente	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.6	5
11	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.6	4
12	AVS	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.5	4
13	Nacional	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.1	4
14	Arouca	4	1	0	3	-3	-2.6	3
15	Casa Pia	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.2	3
16	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-4	-6.2	2
17	Estrela	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.4	1
18	Farense	4	0	0	4	-9	-6.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+6.7	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+4	+5.0	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.5	6
4	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.1	6
5	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.7	6
6	Rio Ave	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.4	6
7	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.0	4
8	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.3	4
9	Moreirense	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.3	4
10	AVS	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
11	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
12	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.8	3
13	Nacional	2	1	0	1	-3	-0.6	3
14	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
15	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.4	1
16	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.1	0
17	Estrela	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.4	0
18	Farense	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+10	+5.6	6
2	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.5	6
3	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
4	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.1	3
5	Porto	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.1	3
6	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
7	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
8	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.3	3
9	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.1	3
10	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
11	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
12	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.9	1
13	Benfica	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
14	Gil Vicente	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.6	1
15	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.1	0
16	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.0	0
17	Farense	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.1	0
18	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-4	-5.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.