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Bundesliga

Referee: Sascha Stegemann

Hamburg

T U T S U

3–2

Full-time

Werder Bremen

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Werder Bremen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 29%

25%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

58%

Both score Ø 46%

42%

50%

Average goals

2,4

3,1

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,31 xG 0,71

54% Possession 46%

12 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 15. · Werder Bremen 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	12	1	0	+40	+26.8	37
2	RB Leipzig	13	9	2	2	+15	+9.1	29
3	Dortmund	12	7	4	1	+10	+7.2	25
4	Leverkusen	13	7	2	4	+9	+7.2	23
5	Hoffenheim	12	7	2	3	+8	+1.7	23
6	Stuttgart	13	7	1	5	-1	-0.5	22
7	Ein Frankfurt	13	6	3	4	-1	+0.9	21
8	FC Koln	13	4	4	5	+1	-0.6	16
9	Freiburg	13	4	4	5	-2	+1.8	16
10	M'gladbach	13	4	4	5	-2	-0.2	16
11	Werder Bremen	12	4	4	4	-5	-6.4	16
12	Union Berlin	13	4	3	6	-6	-4.1	15
13	Augsburg	13	4	1	8	-10	-9.9	13
14	Wolfsburg	13	3	3	7	-6	-4.3	12
15	Hamburg	12	3	3	6	-7	-3.8	12
16	Heidenheim	13	3	2	8	-16	-8.6	11
17	St Pauli	13	2	2	9	-14	-8.6	8
18	Mainz	13	1	3	9	-13	-7.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	7	0	0	+25	+13.0	21
2	RB Leipzig	6	6	0	0	+15	+7.3	18
3	Stuttgart	6	5	0	1	+1	-1.0	15
4	Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	+10	+8.5	13
5	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+5	+6.3	11
6	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+5	+4.4	11
7	Werder Bremen	6	3	2	1	+0	+1.9	11
8	Hamburg	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.7	10
9	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+2	+3.7	10
10	Hoffenheim	6	3	0	3	+1	+0.2	9
11	Union Berlin	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.9	9
12	Augsburg	7	3	0	4	-6	-6.1	9
13	FC Koln	6	2	2	2	+4	+3.7	8
14	Heidenheim	7	2	2	3	-5	-2.5	8
15	M'gladbach	7	1	3	3	-7	-4.1	6
16	Wolfsburg	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.2	5
17	St Pauli	6	1	1	4	-8	-1.6	4
18	Mainz	7	0	2	5	-6	-3.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+15	+13.8	16
2	Hoffenheim	6	4	2	0	+7	+1.5	14
3	Dortmund	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.8	14
4	RB Leipzig	7	3	2	2	+0	+1.8	11
5	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	2	2	-3	-2.8	11
6	M'gladbach	6	3	1	2	+5	+3.9	10
7	Leverkusen	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.3	10
8	FC Koln	7	2	2	3	-3	-4.3	8
9	Wolfsburg	6	2	1	3	-1	-2.1	7
10	Stuttgart	7	2	1	4	-2	+0.5	7
11	Union Berlin	6	2	0	4	-6	-3.2	6
12	Werder Bremen	6	1	2	3	-5	-8.3	5
13	Freiburg	7	1	2	4	-7	-4.5	5
14	Augsburg	6	1	1	4	-4	-3.8	4
15	St Pauli	7	1	1	5	-6	-7.0	4
16	Mainz	6	1	1	4	-7	-4.5	4
17	Heidenheim	6	1	0	5	-11	-6.0	3
18	Hamburg	6	0	2	4	-10	-5.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.