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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves

Estrela

T T S U T

3–1

Full-time

Arouca

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

4,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,5

3,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

42%

67%

Both score Ø 46%

42%

50%

Average goals

2,6

3,9

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,5

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,27 xG 0,48

63% Possession 37%

24 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Estrela 14. · Arouca 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	1	0	+22	+15.1	34
2	Sp Lisbon	13	10	2	1	+25	+20.8	32
3	Benfica	13	8	5	0	+18	+16.2	29
4	Gil Vicente	12	7	2	3	+10	+3.4	23
5	Sp Braga	13	6	4	3	+13	+10.2	22
6	Famalicao	13	5	5	3	+5	+4.3	20
7	Moreirense	13	6	2	5	+1	-6.2	20
8	Guimaraes	12	5	2	5	-3	-3.5	17
9	Rio Ave	13	3	7	3	-4	-7.7	16
10	Santa Clara	13	4	3	6	-3	+2.6	15
11	Estoril	13	3	5	5	+1	-1.7	14
12	Alverca	12	4	2	6	-5	-0.6	14
13	Nacional	12	3	3	6	-5	-5.7	12
14	Estrela	12	2	5	5	-5	-0.8	11
15	Tondela	12	2	3	7	-13	-6.4	9
16	Casa Pia	13	2	3	8	-14	-11.7	9
17	Arouca	12	2	3	7	-21	-17.1	9
18	AVS	13	0	3	10	-22	-11.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	1	0	+10	+7.2	16
2	Sp Lisbon	6	4	1	1	+14	+11.3	13
3	Benfica	7	3	4	0	+9	+10.4	13
4	Moreirense	6	4	1	1	+5	-1.1	13
5	Gil Vicente	6	4	0	2	+4	+2.6	12
6	Guimaraes	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.2	11
7	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+6	+6.1	10
8	Santa Clara	7	3	1	3	+1	+4.6	10
9	Estoril	7	2	3	2	+1	-0.9	9
10	Famalicao	7	2	2	3	+2	-0.6	8
11	Alverca	6	2	1	3	-5	+1.8	7
12	Rio Ave	6	1	3	2	-4	-3.1	6
13	Estrela	6	1	2	3	-1	+2.3	5
14	Arouca	7	1	2	4	-10	-8.9	5
15	Nacional	6	1	0	5	-7	-3.2	3
16	Tondela	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.3	2
17	Casa Pia	6	0	2	4	-8	-6.7	2
18	AVS	7	0	2	5	-9	-4.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+11	+9.5	19
2	Porto	6	6	0	0	+12	+7.9	18
3	Benfica	6	5	1	0	+9	+5.9	16
4	Sp Braga	7	3	3	1	+7	+4.1	12
5	Famalicao	6	3	3	0	+3	+4.8	12
6	Gil Vicente	6	3	2	1	+6	+0.8	11
7	Rio Ave	7	2	4	1	+0	-4.6	10
8	Nacional	6	2	3	1	+2	-2.5	9
9	Alverca	6	2	1	3	+0	-2.4	7
10	Moreirense	7	2	1	4	-4	-5.1	7
11	Casa Pia	7	2	1	4	-6	-5.0	7
12	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-8	-4.1	7
13	Estrela	6	1	3	2	-4	-3.1	6
14	Guimaraes	6	2	0	4	-6	-3.8	6
15	Estoril	6	1	2	3	+0	-0.8	5
16	Santa Clara	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.9	5
17	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-11	-8.1	4
18	AVS	6	0	1	5	-13	-6.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.