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La Liga
Referee: Santiago Jaime Latre
Alaves
S S S U T
1–0
Full-time
Real Madrid
S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,7
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,7
This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 50%
43%
57%
Points per game
1,6
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
57%
43%
Both score Ø 50%
57%
43%
Average goals
2,6
2,6
Scored
1,4
1,7
Conceded
1,1
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

30% Possession 70%
8 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 3
0 Offside 2
20 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Alaves 6. · Real Madrid 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 7 4 2 1 +10 14
2 Real Madrid 7 4 2 1 +6 14
3 Sevilla 7 4 1 2 +9 13
4 Ath Madrid 7 3 3 1 +4 12
5 Betis 7 3 3 1 +0 12
6 Alaves 7 3 2 2 +2 11
7 Espanol 7 3 2 2 +2 11
8 Sociedad 8 3 2 3 +1 11
9 Celta 7 2 4 1 +2 10
10 Levante 8 3 1 4 -2 10
11 Eibar 8 3 1 4 -3 10
12 Valladolid 7 2 3 2 +0 9
13 Getafe 8 2 3 3 -1 9
14 Girona 8 2 3 3 -3 9
15 Villarreal 7 2 2 3 +1 8
16 Valencia 7 1 5 1 -1 8
17 Ath Bilbao 7 1 4 2 -4 7
18 Vallecano 6 1 2 3 -7 5
19 Huesca 7 1 2 4 -10 5
20 Leganes 7 1 1 5 -6 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Alaves Real Madrid
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 M. Díaz
↦ K. Benzema
Mubarak Wakaso 🟨
54′
62′
🔁 Marco Asensio
↦ Casemiro
Rubén Sobrino 🔁
↦ Ibai Gómez
67′
Manu García 🔁
↦ M. Wakaso
74′
80′
🔁 Vinícius Júnior
↦ G. Bale
Martín 🔁
↦ G. Maripán
88′
1–0 Manu García
95′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Alaves

4-3-3
1 Fernando Pacheco G
5 Laguardia D
15 Ximo Navarro D
6 G. Maripán D
3 Rubén Duarte D
22 M. Wakaso M
8 Tomás Pina M
20 D. Brašanac M
11 Ibai Gómez M
23 Jony M
12 J. Calleri F
Bench (7)
7 Rubén Sobrino
19 Manu García
21 Martín
13 Antonio Sivera
14 Burgui
18 Borja Bastón
2 Carlos Vigaray

Coach: Abelardo

Real Madrid

4-3-3
25 T. Courtois G
4 Sergio Ramos D
6 Nacho D
5 R. Varane D
19 Álvaro Odriozola D
10 L. Modrić M
8 T. Kroos M
14 Casemiro M
24 Dani Ceballos M
9 K. Benzema F
11 G. Bale F
Bench (7)
7 M. Díaz
20 Marco Asensio
28 Vinícius Júnior
1 K. Navas
17 Lucas Vázquez
18 Marcos Llorente
23 Reguilón

Coach: Lopetegui

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Santiago Jaime Latre · 81 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.