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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Díaz de Mera

Real Madrid

U S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

This season — La Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 50%

71%

29%

Points per game

2,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

79%

21%

Both score Ø 65%

79%

50%

Average goals

3,5

1,6

Scored

2,4

0,9

Conceded

1,1

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%

17 Shots 18

7 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 6

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Ath Bilbao 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	14	10	3	1	+19	33
2	Ath Madrid	14	8	5	1	+12	29
3	Sociedad	15	8	5	2	+8	29
4	Sevilla	14	8	4	2	+13	28
5	Betis	15	8	3	4	+7	27
6	Vallecano	15	7	3	5	+7	24
7	Barcelona	14	6	5	3	+7	23
8	Ath Bilbao	14	4	8	2	+3	20
9	Espanol	15	5	5	5	+1	20
10	Osasuna	15	5	5	5	-4	20
11	Valencia	15	4	7	4	+1	19
12	Villarreal	14	3	7	4	+0	16
13	Celta	15	4	4	7	-3	16
14	Mallorca	15	3	7	5	-8	16
15	Alaves	14	4	2	8	-8	14
16	Granada	14	2	6	6	-8	12
17	Elche	15	2	6	7	-9	12
18	Cadiz	15	2	6	7	-14	12
19	Getafe	15	2	4	9	-9	10
20	Levante	15	0	7	8	-15	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Barcelona	8	5	2	1	+8	17
3	Espanol	8	5	2	1	+6	17
4	Sevilla	6	5	1	0	+11	16
5	Ath Madrid	7	4	3	0	+7	15
6	Sociedad	7	4	3	0	+4	15
7	Real Madrid	6	4	2	0	+10	14
8	Betis	8	4	2	2	+5	14
9	Valencia	8	3	4	1	+5	13
10	Villarreal	7	3	2	2	+3	11
11	Ath Bilbao	7	3	2	2	+2	11
12	Mallorca	8	2	5	1	+1	11
13	Alaves	8	3	0	5	-5	9
14	Getafe	7	2	1	4	-1	7
15	Elche	7	1	4	2	-3	7
16	Osasuna	8	1	4	3	-6	7
17	Granada	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Celta	8	1	2	5	-5	5
19	Levante	7	0	5	2	-5	5
20	Cadiz	8	0	4	4	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	6	1	1	+9	19
2	Ath Madrid	7	4	2	1	+5	14
3	Sociedad	8	4	2	2	+4	14
4	Osasuna	7	4	1	2	+2	13
5	Betis	7	4	1	2	+2	13
6	Sevilla	8	3	3	2	+2	12
7	Celta	7	3	2	2	+2	11
8	Ath Bilbao	7	1	6	0	+1	9
9	Cadiz	7	2	2	3	-6	8
10	Granada	8	1	4	3	-4	7
11	Barcelona	6	1	3	2	-1	6
12	Valencia	7	1	3	3	-4	6
13	Alaves	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Villarreal	7	0	5	2	-3	5
15	Vallecano	8	1	2	5	-6	5
16	Elche	8	1	2	5	-6	5
17	Mallorca	7	1	2	4	-9	5
18	Espanol	7	0	3	4	-5	3
19	Getafe	8	0	3	5	-8	3
20	Levante	8	0	2	6	-10	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.