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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero Lopez

Real Madrid

S S T S U

3–0

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

This season — La Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 47%

59%

34%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

56%

38%

Both score Ø 55%

53%

56%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

11 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Ath Bilbao 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	33	23	8	2	+51	77
2	Ath Madrid	33	20	8	5	+27	68
3	Real Madrid	32	19	4	9	+18	61
4	Getafe	33	14	12	7	+14	54
5	Sevilla	33	15	7	11	+12	52
6	Valencia	32	11	16	5	+9	49
7	Ath Bilbao	32	11	13	8	-1	46
8	Alaves	33	12	10	11	-7	46
9	Betis	32	12	7	13	-5	43
10	Espanol	33	11	9	13	-9	42
11	Sociedad	33	10	11	12	-2	41
12	Leganes	32	10	11	11	-4	41
13	Eibar	33	9	13	11	-3	40
14	Celta	33	9	8	16	-9	35
15	Girona	33	8	10	15	-12	34
16	Levante	33	8	10	15	-14	34
17	Villarreal	32	7	12	13	-5	33
18	Valladolid	33	7	11	15	-19	32
19	Vallecano	33	7	7	19	-21	28
20	Huesca	33	5	11	17	-20	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	13	3	1	+31	42
2	Ath Madrid	16	13	2	1	+20	41
3	Real Madrid	16	11	1	4	+15	34
4	Sevilla	16	10	3	3	+15	33
5	Getafe	16	10	1	5	+13	31
6	Ath Bilbao	17	8	7	2	+5	31
7	Eibar	17	8	5	4	+9	29
8	Espanol	16	9	2	5	+1	29
9	Valencia	17	6	10	1	+11	28
10	Leganes	16	7	7	2	+6	28
11	Alaves	16	6	8	2	+2	26
12	Celta	17	7	4	6	+4	25
13	Betis	16	7	4	5	-1	25
14	Sociedad	16	5	6	5	+1	21
15	Levante	16	4	6	6	-7	18
16	Vallecano	17	4	6	7	-7	18
17	Villarreal	16	3	7	6	+0	16
18	Huesca	16	3	6	7	-5	15
19	Valladolid	16	3	5	8	-10	14
20	Girona	17	2	6	9	-11	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	10	5	1	+20	35
2	Ath Madrid	17	7	6	4	+7	27
3	Real Madrid	16	8	3	5	+3	27
4	Getafe	17	4	11	2	+1	23
5	Girona	16	6	4	6	-1	22
6	Valencia	15	5	6	4	-2	21
7	Sociedad	17	5	5	7	-3	20
8	Alaves	17	6	2	9	-9	20
9	Sevilla	17	5	4	8	-3	19
10	Betis	16	5	3	8	-4	18
11	Valladolid	17	4	6	7	-9	18
12	Villarreal	16	4	5	7	-5	17
13	Levante	17	4	4	9	-7	16
14	Ath Bilbao	15	3	6	6	-6	15
15	Espanol	17	2	7	8	-10	13
16	Leganes	16	3	4	9	-10	13
17	Eibar	16	1	8	7	-12	11
18	Huesca	17	2	5	10	-15	11
19	Celta	16	2	4	10	-13	10
20	Vallecano	16	3	1	12	-14	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.